Global macro overview for 18/08/2016:
The Crude Oil Inventories data released yesterday printed an unexpected drawdown in U.S. crude and gasoline stockpiles after three straight weeks of unexpected builds. Market participants had expected only a -333k barrels draw after 1055k increase a week ago, but the figure was at the level of -2508k barrels instead. Despite of this fact, the crude oil prices have gained as much as 13% since last Thursday, after Saudi Arabia, the head of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, started speculation that OPEC was ready for an output freeze deal with producers outside the group. In conclusion, the inventories scores are now being less important than rumors and hints coming from the OPEC members, who are desperately trying to find a solution of the global supply glut.
Let's now take a look at the Crude Oil technical picture in the daily time frame. Bulls have managed to rally up to the 61% Fibo at the level of 46.89. Now the question is whether this rally will be a consistent one or bears will jump into the market. The daily candle close should be closely watched now. The next support is seen at the level of 45.81 and the next resistance is seen at the level of 48.24.
