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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for June 27, 2016

USDJPYM30.png

USD/JPY is under pressure as the key resistance is at 103.30. On Friday, the decision by UK voters to exit the European Union sent shockwaves across global financial markets. The British pound once dived 12.0% from the session's high (1.5018) to 1.3224 against the US dollar, the lowest level since 1985. GBP/USD eventually ended the session 8.1% lower at 1.3678. This morning, the pair dropped 2.0% further to 1.3408.

Global stock markets tumbled following the surprise victory of the "Brexit" camp. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 3.4% to 17400, the S&P 500 lost 3.6% to settle at 2037, and the Nasdaq Composite was down 4.1% to 4707. However, those losses, the largest since August 2015, were mild relative to the ones in Europe, as the Stoxx Europe 600 slumped 7.0%, the biggest one-day decline since the 2008 financial crisis.

As safe-haven assets were in demand in the turbulent trading session, a buying spree was spotted for US government bonds, with the benchmark 10-year treasury yield falling sharply to 1.577% from 1.741% Thursday. Gold soared 4.8% to $1315 an ounce (day-high at $1358), while silver was up 2.4% to $17.69 an ounce (day-high at $18.31). Meanwhile, Nymex crude oil plunged 4.9% to $47.64 a barrel.

Amid huge market volatility, the US dollar and the Japanese yen received bids. The ICE Dollar Index gained 2.1% to 95.45 (day-high at 96.70), as EUR/USD sank 2.4% to 1.1115 (day-low at 1.0909). On the other hand, USD/JPY shed 6.6% to 99.08, the lowest level since November 2013, before settling 3.7% lower at 102.19.

Commodities-linked currencies gave back the gains accumulated several sessions earlier, with USD/CAD surging 1.9% to 1.3001 (day-high at 1.3097), AUD/USD plunging 2.1% to 0.7458 (day-low at 0.7302) and NZD/USD giving up 1.7% to 0.7130 (day-low at 0.6976).

Traders are bracing for further turbulence generated by political and economic uncertainties in both the UK and Europe. The pair rebounded to 103.26 on Friday after plunging to a day-low of 99.08. Currently, the pair is trading around the 20-period (30-minute chart) moving average while the narrowing of the Bollinger bands suggests diminished volatility. Meanwhile, the intraday bearish bias is maintained by the descending 50-period moving average. As long as the key resistance at 103.30 is not surpassed, the pair could re-visit 100.85 and 100 on the downside.

Recommendations:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 100.85. A break below this target will move the pair further downwards to 100.00. The pivot point stands at 103.30. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 105 and the second one at 106.15.

Resistance levels: 105.00, 106.15, 107.00

Support levels: 100.85, 100.00, 99.45

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com