Fundamental outlook:
USD/JPY is expected to consolidate with bullish bias. It is underpinned by the positive dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 98.06 versus 97.91 early Wednesday) after hawkish minutes of the March FOMC meeting that showed "several" participants thought the June interest rate hike could be possible, while "a couple" preferred to wait until 2016. Although the minutes were deemed out of date given the last week's extremely weak U.S. March non-farm payrolls data. USD/JPY is also supported by the higher U.S. Treasury yields (10-year at 1.905% versus 1.893% late Tuesday), purchases of the yen crosses amid improved risk appetite (VIX fear gauge eased 5.41% to 13.98; S&P 500 closed up 0.27% at 2,081.9 overnight), demand from Japan's importers, and Bank of Japan's ultra-loose monetary policy. But the gains of USD/JPY are tempered by the Japanese exports.
Technical comment:
The daily chart mixed as the MACD is in bearish mode, but stochastics is bullish. Five-day moving average is meandering sideways below declining 15-day moving average.
Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price holds above its pivot point, long positions are recommended with the first target at 120.80 and the second target at 121.20. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 119.40. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 119.15. The pivot point is at 119.65.
Resistance levels:
120.80
121.20
121.65
Support levels:
119.40
119.15
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
