Euro area annual inflation was -0.1% in March 2015, up from -0.3% in February. In March 2014, the rate was 0.5%. European Union annual inflation was also -0.1% in March 2015, up from -0.3% in February. In March 2015, negative annual rates were observed in twelve Member States. The lowest annual rates were registered in Greece (-1.9%), Cyprus (-1.4%), Poland (-1.2%), Bulgaria, and Lithuania (both -1.1%). The highest annual rates were recorded in Austria (0.9%), Romania (0.8%), and Sweden (0.7%). Compared to February 2015, the annual inflation rate fell in three Member States, remained stable in three, and rose in twenty-two.
Upcoming events:
Today is a quiet day on the markets due to lack of macroeconomic data. Things should be picked up by tomorrow. We have a number of high-impact data releases to look forward to, starting with the German ZEW economic sentiment on Tuesday, French flash manufacturing PMI, German flash manufacturing PMI on Thursday, and the weekend will be closed with German Ifo business climate and euro group meetings. Today, the euro macro calendar offered a data-light day. German PPI and German Buda monthly are due for release.
Weekly technical view:
Last week, the euro managed to close above 2.0% against USD. The parallel support was found at 1.0463, the lowest in March. The parallel resistance is seen at the multi- resistance level of. The same trading range has been maintaining for six-weeks. 50dsma is found at 1.0955. At Friday's session, the pair managed to close above 20Dsma. This event took place after 7 straight sessions. Weekly resistance is found between 1.0955 and 1.1055. In case the pair closes above 1.1055, bulls can extend their rally towards 1.1300+. The chances are remote. Weekly support is found at 1.0700. Bears are likely to regain the control in case the price closes below 1.0700. Eventually, the euro favors bears below 0.9000. The big distribution pattern has been formed at 1.1055. We will re-analyze the trend in case the price closes above 1.1055. The double bottom is likely to be placed at 1.0520 and 1.0532.
Intraday technical view:
The one-hour and four-hour time frames shifted to buying. Higher lows and higher highs are developing in the one-hour chart. The pair managed to close above the previous swing low at 1.0713. These are the factors that supported bulls. The intraday resistance is seen at the fib level of 1.0850 and 1.0890 (multi-hour high). The pair can stretch up to 1.0930 and 1.0950 in case the price manages to breach above 1.0850. Higher highs and higher lows are forming in the H1 chart. Eventually, the positional view still favors bears. The intraday support is found at 1.0780 34hrsma and swing low at 1.0713 rounded to 1.0700. We expect mild downticks from here on. The hourly resistance zone is seen between 1.0850 and 1.0890. We recommend buying above 1.0850 with targets at 1.0880, 1.0900, and 1.0930. On the down side, we recommend selling below 1.0780 with targets at 1.0730 and 1.0710. The panic will be trigger below 1.0700 and bears grip will be tighter in case of a closure above 1.0660 34hrsma in the four-hour chart.
