Fundamental overview:
USD/JPY is expected to consolidate with a bearish bias after hitting a two-week low at 117.70 on Wednesday. It is undermined by the flows to haven JPY and unwinding of JPY-funded carry trades amid increased risk aversion (VIX fear gauge jumped 24.45% to 18.53, S&P 500 closed 1.64% lower at 2,026.14 overnight) as oil prices tumbled to fresh five-year lows after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries cut its 2015 demand expectations for crude to the lowest level since 2003, while below-forecast China November CPI data points to weakening growth in the world's second-largest economy. USD/JPY is also weighed by the lower U.S. Treasury yields (10-year at 2.171% versus 2.220% late Tuesday), broadly weaker USD undertone (ICE spot dollar index last 88.23 versus 88.67 early Wednesday) and Japan's export sales. But USD/JPY losses are cushioned by demand from Japan's importers and Bank of Japan's large-scale monetary easing policy.
Technical comment:
Daily chart is negative-biased as MACD is bearish, stochastics is falling from overbought levels.
Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 117.40. A break of this target will move the pair further downwards to 117.05. The pivot point stands at 118.80. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, then it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 119.40 and the second target at 120.10.
Resistance levels:
119.40
120.10
120.45
Support levels:
117.40
117.05
116.75
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
