tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-59383334458720591202024-03-05T21:13:06.484+08:00Money Grows NetworkUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger54969125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5938333445872059120.post-17108681847380967932021-12-13T15:08:00.001+08:002021-12-13T15:08:10.355+08:00Overview of the GBP/USD pair. December 13. The market does not believe that the Bank of England will raise the rate.<p>4-hour timeframe</p>
<p><img width="450" src="https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20211213/analytics61b68e9adb7cd.jpg" alt="analytics61b68e9adb7cd.jpg" /></p>
<p>Technical details:</p>
<p>Higher linear regression channel: direction - downward.</p>
<p>Lower linear regression channel: direction - downward.</p>
<p>Moving average (20; smoothed) - sideways.</p>
<p>The GBP/USD currency pair broke the moving average line in half on Friday, so it now has little chance of forming a new upward trend. Strictly speaking, these chances are not so small, since the longer the trend continues, the higher the probability that it will end soon. Both linear regression channels are still pointing downwards, so it's too early to talk about a trend change. However, purchases can already be considered. Moreover, on Friday, traders reacted by selling the dollar while another strong report on US inflation was released and it would be more logical to see new growth of the US currency. Unfortunately, the bulls' hard-won advantage on Friday could be smashed to smithereens in the middle of this week. The meetings of the Fed and the Bank of England are extremely important events and there may be surprises at the end of 2021. If everything is clear on the Federal Reserve in principle – most likely, the QE program will be reduced by 20-30 billion dollars - then everything is confusing with the Bank of England. Last month, it seemed to have embarked on a path of gradual tightening, but this month it may get off this path. It's all the fault of the new strain "omicron", the fourth "wave" of the pandemic in the UK, the tightening of quarantine measures. All this may harm the British economy, which is already going through hard times. Therefore, in such conditions, it is impractical to curtail QE, as well as raise the key rate. The markets no longer believe in anything like that. Forecasts for a rate hike say that only one member of the monetary committee will vote in favor.</p>
<p>Reuters and Scotiabank also do not believe in tightening.</p>
<p>Many investment banks, analytical agencies, and news agencies also do not believe in raising the key rate. For example, Scotiabank said that the pound could fall to the level of 1.3000 due to uncertainty with the omicron strain, and BA is unlikely to raise the rate at the last meeting this year. Scotiabank experts believe that the Bank of England will move to tighten monetary policy in the first quarter of next year, and it is then that the British currency should be expected to grow. The bank's experts also said that the decline in Boris Johnson's popularity could harm the pound sterling.</p>
<p>At the same time, Reuters conducted a poll among analysts and most of them replied that they expected a rate hike from BA in the first quarter of next year, although the previous survey showed the market's belief in an increase in December. Recall that a member of the BA monetary committee, Michael Saunders, recently spoke, who said that before raising the rate, it is necessary to thoroughly study the omicron strain and understand what real threats it poses to the economy.</p>
<p>A similar decision (to revise the forecast) was made by the economists of Goldman Sachs bank. They also believe that now we should expect a rate increase from the British regulator no earlier than February 2022. Thus, formally, the pound sterling has a chance to start a new long-term upward trend in the coming months, since possible tightening from the Fed has already been worked out by the market several times, but tightening from the BA has not. But at the same time, this is not a fast process and it is quite difficult to say exactly when a new trend will start. As for this Wednesday and Thursday, when the most important events of the week will take place, high volatility is almost guaranteed, but this does not mean that the pound/dollar pair will move only in one direction. It can safely trade from different sides with increased volatility. Do not forget that a report on British inflation will also be published on Wednesday, which is likely to rise to 5%.</p>
<p><img width="450" src="https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20211213/analytics61b68ea3a8cbc.jpg" alt="analytics61b68ea3a8cbc.jpg" /></p>
<p>The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair is currently 77 points per day. For the pound/dollar pair, this value is "average". On Monday, December 13, thus, we expect movement inside the channel, limited by the levels of 1.3191 and 1.3346. The upward reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator will signal a new round of corrective movement.</p>
<p>Nearest support levels:</p>
<p>S1 – 1.3245</p>
<p>S2 – 1.3214</p>
<p>S3 – 1.3184</p>
<p>Nearest resistance levels:</p>
<p>R1 – 1.3275</p>
<p>R2 – 1.3306</p>
<p>R3 – 1.3336</p>
<p>Trading recommendations:</p>
<p>The GBP/USD pair has started a corrective movement on the 4-hour timeframe. Thus, at this time, it is necessary to remain in long positions with the targets of 1.3306 and 1.3336 levels until the Heiken Ashi indicator turns down. Sell orders can be considered again if the price is fixed below the moving average with targets of 1.3214 and 1.3184 and keep them open until the Heiken Ashi turns up.</p>
<p>Explanations to the illustrations:</p>
<p>Linear regression channels - help determine the current trend. If both are directed in the same direction, then the trend is strong now.</p>
<p>The moving average line (settings 20.0, smoothed) - determines the short-term trend and the direction in which to trade now.</p>
<p>Murray levels - target levels for movements and corrections.</p>
<p>Volatility levels (red lines) - the likely price channel in which the pair will spend the next day, based on current volatility indicators.</p>
<p>CCI indicator - its entry into the oversold area (below -250) or into the overbought area (above +250) means that a trend reversal in the opposite direction is approaching.</p>
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - <a href='https://www.instaforex.com/?x=BPDZ'>www.instaforex.com</a>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5938333445872059120.post-30075211065941353232021-12-13T14:08:00.001+08:002021-12-13T14:08:09.541+08:00Overview of the EUR/USD pair. December 13. The markets have been lying low for a week and are waiting for the outcome of<p>4-hour timeframe</p>
<p><img width="450" src="https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20211213/analytics61b68e506e4f6.jpg" alt="analytics61b68e506e4f6.jpg" /></p>
<p>Technical details:</p>
<p>Higher linear regression channel: direction - downward.</p>
<p>Lower linear regression channel: direction - downward.</p>
<p>Moving average (20; smoothed) - sideways.</p>
<p>The EUR/USD currency pair has lost all interest in active movements in recent weeks. All price changes fit into the channel between the Murray levels "0/8" - 1.1230 and "2/8" - 1.1353. The pair is now inside the side channel. What does this mean in the current conditions? At a time when the pair has been declining for quite a long period, it would be logical to see an upward correction. However, even when there are serious technical reasons for this, the bulls refuse this scenario. At the same time, bears are in no hurry to close short positions, so the pair is not growing for this reason either. And the fact that the pair as a whole is practically not moving suggests that the markets are waiting. And they can only wait for one event. Nonfarm Payrolls and the US inflation report have already been published. Therefore, only the Fed meeting remains. In principle, there is also nothing much to wait for. We have already fully analyzed this event and traders clearly understand what can be expected from the Fed and what should not be. By and large, most experts agree that the pace of curtailing the QE program will be increased and this will be the main result of the December meeting of the regulator. There will be another press conference with Jerome Powell, at which interesting information may also be heard. In particular, about inflation, which continues to grow in the United States, by leaps and bounds. But the main thing is the decision on QE. A little below we will look at the possible movements of the pair with different solutions for QE. It should also be noted here that it will be very difficult to break the current downward trend on the 4-hour TF. At the same time, the dollar has been growing for quite a long time, so the chances of ending the "bearish" trend are growing.</p>
<p>What is the market reaction to expect if QE is reduced by 20-30 billion dollars?</p>
<p>We have already decided that the most important moment will not be the meeting itself, but the decision that the Fed will make on the QE program. Thus, if the pace of the program's curtailment is increased to 20-30 billion dollars per month, this will be a "bullish" factor for the US currency. Recall that any tightening of monetary policy is a "growth factor" for the national currency. However, at the same time, this is the foreign exchange market, and information about a possible increase in the rate of folding has been in the air for several weeks. Thus, it is likely that it is already embedded in the current dollar exchange rate. That is why the dollar may not continue to grow against the euro, even if QE is reduced in December not by 15 billion, but by 20-30. We want traders to clearly understand that sometimes markets move completely differently from what is expected of them. By the way, last Friday, the US inflation report provoked a fall in the dollar (although not strong), although earlier the acceleration of inflation in America caused its growth. We assume that the bears could have had enough and worked out all the possible factors of the fall of the euro/dollar pair. Thus, even if the QE program is reduced more than announced in November, this should not necessarily lead to a rise in the dollar. However, at the same time, increased volatility on Wednesday and Thursday is almost guaranteed. Since, in addition to the Fed meeting and its results, there will also be an ECB meeting and its results. And who knows what Christine Lagarde will tell the markets? And on Monday and Tuesday, traders can rest easy, because no important publications or fundamental events are scheduled for these days.</p>
<p><img width="450" src="https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20211213/analytics61b68e580f8e3.jpg" alt="analytics61b68e580f8e3.jpg" /></p>
<p>The volatility of the euro/dollar currency pair as of December 13 is 66 points and is characterized as "average". Thus, we expect the pair to move today between the levels of 1.1249 and 1.1382. A reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator upwards will signal a new round of upward movement inside the side channel.</p>
<p>Nearest support levels:</p>
<p>S1 – 1.1292</p>
<p>S2 – 1.1230</p>
<p>S3 – 1.1169</p>
<p>Nearest resistance levels:</p>
<p>R1 – 1.1353</p>
<p>R2 – 1.1414</p>
<p>R3 – 1.1475</p>
<p>Trading recommendations:</p>
<p>The EUR/USD pair has consolidated back above the moving average. Thus, today you should stay in buy orders with a target of 1.1353. Sales of the pair should be considered if the price is fixed back below the moving average, with targets of 1.1249 and 1.1230. The high probability of a flat should also be taken into account. It may end this week, but it is unlikely before Wednesday and Thursday.</p>
<p>Explanations to the illustrations:</p>
<p>Linear regression channels - help determine the current trend. If both are directed in the same direction, then the trend is strong now.</p>
<p>Moving average line (settings 20.0, smoothed) - determines the short-term trend and the direction in which to trade now.</p>
<p>Murray levels - target levels for movements and corrections.</p>
<p>Volatility levels (red lines) - the likely price channel in which the pair will spend the next day, based on current volatility indicators.</p>
<p>CCI indicator - its entry into the oversold area (below -250) or into the overbought area (above +250) means that a trend reversal in the opposite direction is approaching.</p>
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - <a href='https://www.instaforex.com/?x=BPDZ'>www.instaforex.com</a>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5938333445872059120.post-16478123604591910902021-12-13T13:08:00.001+08:002021-12-13T13:08:26.631+08:00Forecast and trading signals for GBP/USD for December 13. Detailed analysis of the movement of the pair and trade deals.<p>GBP/USD 5M</p>
<p><img width="450" src="https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20211213/analytics61b6b8407539b.jpg" alt="analytics61b6b8407539b.jpg" /></p>
<p>The GBP/USD pair moved much more "softly" in comparison with the jerky movements of the euro/dollar pair on Friday. The pair was slowly decreasing in the first half of the day, and it was growing at about the same rate in the second. There was a surge of emotions among traders for some time immediately after the release of the US inflation report, which led to rather sharp movements. Quite important reports were also published in the morning in the UK - GDP and industrial production - and they turned out to be worse than forecasted, so it is not surprising that the pound fell in the first half of the day. Unfortunately, this movement did not work out, since not a single signal was generated in the morning. It fell short of reaching the critical line by a couple of few points, from which it could rebound. But a buy signal was formed at the end of the European trading session, when there was a rebound from the 1.3186-1.3193 area. Its traders had to work out a long position. The US inflation report was published a little later, about an hour later, and, since the deal had already been opened, and the movement could be strong, it was necessary to set Stop Loss below the 1.3186-1.3193 area. As a result, the pair reached the Kijun-sen line and bounced off it, so the long position should have been closed (profit was 27 points) and a short position immediately opened. This signal turned out to be false, and we saw a decline by more than 20 points, so the Stop Loss was set at breakeven, at which the deal was closed. A new buy signal was formed when the pair overcame the Kijun-Sen at the 1.3246 area. This signal brought about 20 points of profit, and the trade should have been closed after a rebound from the level of 1.3277. As a result, the profit of the day was almost 50 points.</p>
<p>GBP/USD 1H</p>
<p><img width="450" src="https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20211213/analytics61b6b843bccbb.jpg" alt="analytics61b6b843bccbb.jpg" /></p>
<p>On the hourly timeframe, the pound/dollar pair broke out of the descending channel, so now a new upward trend can begin to form. The bulls only have to overcome the important Senkou Span B line on their way, and then the chances of further upward movement will become even greater. However, this week the results of the meetings of the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve will be summed up, so the mood of traders may change dramatically. We highlight the following important levels on December 13: 1.3186-1.3193, 1.3246, 1.3288, 1.3362, 1.3406. There are no levels below, as the price has not been so low for more than a year. The Senkou Span B (1.3224) and Kijun-sen (1.3281) lines can also be signal sources. Signals can be "rebounds" and "breakthroughs" of these levels and lines. It is recommended to set the Stop Loss level to breakeven when the price passes in the right direction by 20 points. The lines of the Ichimoku indicator can move during the day, which should be taken into account when searching for trading signals. BoE Chairman Andrew Bailey will give a speech in the UK on Monday. However, we do not believe that three days before the central bank meeting, its head will share important information with the markets. Thus, today, most likely, there will be no news, and the volatility of the pair will be relatively weak.</p>
<p>We recommend you to familiarize yourself:</p>
<p>Overview of the EUR/USD pair. December 13. The markets have been lying low for a week and are waiting for the outcome of the Fed meeting.</p>
<p>Overview of the GBP/USD pair. December 13. The market does not believe that the Bank of England will raise the rate.</p>
<p>Forecast and trading signals for EUR/USD for December 13. Detailed analysis of the movement of the pair and trade deals.</p>
<p>COT report</p>
<p><img width="450" src="https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20211213/analytics61b6b847005c0.jpg" alt="analytics61b6b847005c0.jpg" /></p>
<p>The mood of professional traders became a little less bearish during the last reporting week (November 30 – December 6). Professional traders closed 3,600 sell contracts (shorts) and 2,100 buy contracts (longs) during the week. Thus, the net position for the "non-commercial" group of traders increased by 1,500 contracts. This is a very small change even for the British pound. In general, the mood of non-commercial traders continues to be bearish, and quite strong. We draw your attention to how low the green line of the first indicator is located in the chart above, which reflects the net position of the non-commercial group. Thus, unlike the euro, the pound's decline in recent weeks looks just logical: major players sell off the currency, and it falls. A further decline in the British currency is also now quite likely, but at the same time we draw your attention to the fact that the green and red lines of the first indicator have moved quite far from each other. This may indicate that the downward trend is drying up. Thus, we get a situation in which the euro currency is not moving down quite logically, and the pound may complete its movement in the near future. Thus, for both major pairs, we recommend waiting for the downward trend to end, but do not start buying until specific buy signals are formed.</p>
<p>Explanations for the chart:</p>
<p>Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.</p>
<p>Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.</p>
<p>Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.</p>
<p>Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.</p>
<p>Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders.</p>
<p>Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the non-commercial group.</p>
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - <a href='https://www.instaforex.com/?x=BPDZ'>www.instaforex.com</a>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5938333445872059120.post-39374793830753236142021-12-13T12:08:00.001+08:002021-12-13T12:08:54.628+08:00Forecast and trading signals for EUR/USD on December 13. Detailed analysis of the pair's movement and trade deals. Ambiguous<p>EUR/USD 5M</p>
<p><img width="450" src="https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20211213/analytics61b6b63f1b55a.jpg" alt="analytics61b6b63f1b55a.jpg" /></p>
<p>The EUR/USD pair did not trade in the best way during the last trading day of the week. Of course, the report on inflation in the US, which we talked about all last week, had a huge impact on the mood of the markets. After its release, the quotes of the euro currency rose by 40 points in five minutes, and then fell by exactly the same amount over the next hour. Thus, we can conclude that the markets did not quite logically work out the inflation report. It would be much more logical if the US currency eventually rose in price. But instead, the euro gained, which continues to adjust with difficulty against the dollar. Also, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gave a speech (the figure "1" in the chart) on Friday, but no new information was received. Therefore, it remains only to analyze the trading signals and understand how to trade on Friday. The first sell signal was formed when the price overcame the Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines in the European session. After that, with great difficulty, the price went down 15 points, so traders had the opportunity to set a Stop Loss at breakeven on a short position. Then the "storm" began when the US inflation report was released and the pair began to fly from side to side, breaking both lines of the Ichimoku indicator several times. Thus, it was not necessary to work out all these signals. Firstly, they were formed immediately after the most important report. Secondly, when the market calmed down a bit, it became clear that all these signals were false, so it was no longer necessary to work out similar signals near these lines. As a result, only one transaction was opened, which closed at breakeven.</p>
<p>EUR/USD 1H</p>
<p><img width="450" src="https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20211213/analytics61b6b6424a2aa.jpg" alt="analytics61b6b6424a2aa.jpg" /></p>
<p>On the hourly timeframe, the pair continues to move upwards with great difficulty and a rising trend line has been formed. The pair tried to settle below the important Senkou Span B line last Friday, but without success, so the weak upward trend persists. We highlight the following levels for trading on Monday – 1.1192, 1.1234, 1.1266, 1.1331, 1.1375, as well as the Senkou Span B (1.1284) and Kijun-sen (1.1290) lines. The lines of the Ichimoku indicator may change their position during the day, which should be taken into account when searching for trading signals. Signals can be rebounds or breakthroughs of these levels and lines. Do not forget about placing a Stop Loss order at breakeven if the price moves 15 points in the right direction. This will protect you against possible losses if the signal turns out to be false. Not a single important event planned in the European Union and in the United States on December 13. However, the markets can already trade with an eye on Wednesday and Thursday, when the results of the ECB and Federal Reserve meetings will be announced. Most likely, the pair will trade as calmly as possible with a slight upward bias on Monday and Tuesday. It is unlikely that the markets will force events and take risks until Wednesday evening.</p>
<p>We recommend you to familiarize yourself:</p>
<p>Overview of the EUR/USD pair. December 13. The markets have been lying low for a week and are waiting for the outcome of the Fed meeting.</p>
<p>Overview of the GBP/USD pair. December 13. The market does not believe that the Bank of England will raise the rate.</p>
<p>Forecast and trading signals for GBP/USD for December 13. Detailed analysis of the movement of the pair and trade deals.</p>
<p>Analysis of the COT report</p>
<p><img width="450" src="https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20211213/analytics61b6b6457ed27.jpg" alt="analytics61b6b6457ed27.jpg" /></p>
<p>The mood of non-commercial traders became... less bearish again during the last reporting week (November 30 – December 6). What does it mean? This means that the group of "non-commercial" traders now has more open short positions than long ones, but at the same time, the number of sell contracts (shorts) has decreased over the past week. To be precise, it decreased by 15,000, and the number of longs increased by 2,000. Thus, the net position of professional players increased by 17,000, respectively, the bearish mood became less strong. However, it was not strong, and the trend is important to us first of all. And that's just with the trend lately, everything is bad... The fact is (and it is perfectly noticeable in the chart above) that the green and red lines (net positions of non-commercial and commercial traders) have been tightly stuck near the zero level in recent months. This means that now the mood of both groups of traders is as neutral as possible. Nevertheless, all this time the European currency continues to fall, which already looks like a correlation between the actions of major market participants and the movement of the euro exchange rate. So far, this can be attributed to chance, but the bearish mood in the euro has not intensified in recent weeks and months. Thus, it is impossible to say that major players continue to get rid of the euro currency. From this point of view, it can be assumed that the downward trend is nearing its end, but at the same time you should wait for strong technical signals to start opening long positions.</p>
<p>Explanations for the chart:</p>
<p>Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.</p>
<p>Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.</p>
<p>Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.</p>
<p>Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.</p>
<p>Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders.</p>
<p>Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the non-commercial group.</p>
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - <a href='https://www.instaforex.com/?x=BPDZ'>www.instaforex.com</a>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5938333445872059120.post-8792246477259244252021-12-13T07:08:00.003+08:002021-12-13T07:08:52.751+08:00How to trade GBP/USD on December 13? Simple tips for beginners. The pound is also struggling to recover and is awaiting central<p>Analysis of previous deals:</p>
<p>30M chart of the GBP/USD pair</p>
<p><img width="450" src="https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20211212/analytics61b63fe587aa6.jpg" alt="analytics61b63fe587aa6.jpg" /></p>
<p>The GBP/USD pair also resumed a not too strong upward movement on Friday. An upward trend line has been formed, which already has as many as three pivot points, therefore it is relatively strong, in contrast to the upward movement itself. Nevertheless, we have repeatedly noted in our articles that the euro and the pound are now appreciating with obvious difficulty, so it should not be surprising that the upward movement is weak. On Friday, in addition to the US inflation report, about which a lot has already been said, quite interesting reports were also published in the UK. In particular, changes in GDP in October and changes in industrial production in the same month. Both of these reports, if not failures, turned out to be significantly worse than forecasts. Therefore, the fall of the British currency in the first half of the day was quite logical. But the fall of the dollar in the second half of the day was not logical, but this is how the markets reacted to the US inflation, which has already accelerated to 6.8%.</p>
<p>5M chart of the GBP/USD pair</p>
<p><img width="450" src="https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20211213/analytics61b671a2dd4c0.jpg" alt="analytics61b671a2dd4c0.jpg" /></p>
<p>On the 5-minute timeframe, the movement of the pound/dollar pair was quite interesting on Friday. It should be noted right away that the 1.3193-1.3208 area, which was relevant in trading on Thursday, continued to influence the pair's movement on Friday. For example, the first buy signal was formed in this area for several hours. It all ended with the pair rushing up sharply, but this happened exactly at the time when the US inflation report was published (the second checkmark in the chart). Consequently, this signal clearly should not have been processed. The next signal was formed when the markets had already calmed down a bit. The price bounced off the level of 1.3208, forming a new buy signal, which should have been worked out with a long position. The price subsequently continued to rise and broke through the levels of 1.3246 and 1.3260, going up a total of at least 40 points. Therefore, the deal could be closed by Take Profit, and manually in the late afternoon. In any case, profit.</p>
<p>How to trade on Monday:</p>
<p>At this time, an upward trend has formed on the 30-minute timeframe, so the British pound may continue to rise in price in the coming days. This week there will be quite important fundamental events, so the mood of the markets may change five times more. The important levels on the 5 minute timeframe are 1.3170, 1.3192, 1.3208, 1.3246, 1.3260, 1.3286 and 1.3310. We recommend trading on them on Monday. The price can bounce off them or overcome them. As before, we set Take Profit at a distance of 40-50 points. At the 5M TF, you can use all the nearest levels as targets, but then you need to take profit, taking into account the strength of the movement. When passing 20 points in the right direction, we recommend setting Stop Loss to breakeven. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey will speak in the UK on December 13. The likelihood that this event will provoke a reaction in the markets is low. No more than 20%. There are no other events or reports scheduled for Monday.</p>
<p>Basic rules of the trading system:</p>
<p>1) The signal strength is calculated by the time it took to form the signal (bounce or overcome the level). The less time it took, the stronger the signal.</p>
<p>2) If two or more deals were opened near a certain level based on false signals (which did not trigger Take Profit or the nearest target level), then all subsequent signals from this level should be ignored.</p>
<p>3) In a flat, any pair can form a lot of false signals or not form them at all. But in any case, at the first signs of a flat, it is better to stop trading.</p>
<p>4) Trade deals are opened in the time period between the beginning of the European session and until the middle of the US one, when all deals must be closed manually.</p>
<p>5) On the 30-minute TF, using signals from the MACD indicator, you can trade only if there is good volatility and a trend, which is confirmed by a trend line or a trend channel.</p>
<p>6) If two levels are located too close to each other (from 5 to 15 points), then they should be considered as an area of support or resistance.</p>
<p>On the chart:</p>
<p>Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.</p>
<p>Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.</p>
<p>The MACD indicator consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines).</p>
<p>Important speeches and reports (always contained in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their exit, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement.</p>
<p>Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.</p>
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - <a href='https://www.instaforex.com/?x=BPDZ'>www.instaforex.com</a>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5938333445872059120.post-19383604114935048922021-12-13T07:08:00.001+08:002021-12-13T07:08:52.270+08:00How to trade EUR/USD on December 13? Simple tips for beginners. The euro is slowly creeping up<p>Analysis of previous deals:</p>
<p>30M chart of the EUR/USD pair</p>
<p><img width="450" src="https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20211212/analytics61b62db986e93.jpg" alt="analytics61b62db986e93.jpg" /></p>
<p>The EUR/USD pair resumed its upward movement on Friday, which made it possible to form a new upward trend line. Thus, at this time, an upward trend has formed, which allows us to count on further strengthening of the euro. Unfortunately, so far the bulls are very weak and hardly push the pair up. However, purely theoretically, a lot can change next week, since two important meetings of the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve will take place at once. And now we can only guess what will be the markets' reaction to these events. In theory, everything is easy and simple: if there will be a tightening of monetary policy by one bank or another, there will also be an increase in the national currency. In reality, everything can be exactly the opposite. For example, like on Friday, when the US inflation report showed another acceleration, but this time the dollar did not grow against the euro, as it did in previous times.</p>
<p>5M chart of the EUR/USD pair</p>
<p><img width="450" src="https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20211213/analytics61b670ec2d4e9.jpg" alt="analytics61b670ec2d4e9.jpg" /></p>
<p>On the 5-minute timeframe, the picture on Friday was quite interesting and definitely deserves a careful, detailed analysis. There were several trading signals. And they all formed in the afternoon. The pair also moved quite well in the European trading session, in a trend, but never broke or rebounded from any of the levels. Thus, the first buy signal was formed upon a rebound from the level of 1.1266. And its novice players had to work it out with a long position. Further, literally an hour later, a report on inflation in the United States would be released. By that time, the pair had grown by 10 points, so it would be most expedient to set Stop Loss below 1.1259 (not breakeven!) And hope for the pair to grow. The quotes jumped to the level of 1.1307 immediately after the inflation report was published and rebounded from it. Therefore, long positions should have been closed here (profit was 20 points). But there was no need to rush to open short positions, since an important report had been published literally ten minutes before, and a long position had been opened even earlier. You shouldn't have taken risks with a short position. The same applies to the second rebound from the 1.1307 level, which happened immediately after the release of the consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan, because the previous sell signal from the 1.1307 level turned out to be false. The signal to buy to overcome the level of 1.1307 was formed too late, so it should have been filtered out.</p>
<p>How to trade on Monday:</p>
<p>There is now an uptrend line on the 30-minute timeframe, so bounces from it can be worked out with long positions. Consolidating below it will break the upward trend. The key levels on the 5-minute timeframe for December 13 are 1.1186, 1.1227 - 1.1234, 1.1266, 1.1307, 1.1344, 1.1348-1.1355. Take Profit, as before, is set at a distance of 30-40 points. Stop Loss - to breakeven when the price passes in the right direction by 15 points. At the 5M TF, the target can be the nearest level if it is not too close or too far away. If it is, then you should act according to the situation or work according to Take Profit. No important statistics planned either in the European Union or in the United States on Monday. Thus, most likely, the volatility will not be strong tomorrow.</p>
<p>Basic rules of the trading system:</p>
<p>1) The signal strength is calculated by the time it took to form the signal (bounce or overcome the level). The less time it took, the stronger the signal.</p>
<p>2) If two or more deals were opened near a certain level based on false signals (which did not trigger Take Profit or the nearest target level), then all subsequent signals from this level should be ignored.</p>
<p>3) In a flat, any pair can form a lot of false signals or not form them at all. But in any case, at the first signs of a flat, it is better to stop trading.</p>
<p>4) Trade deals are opened in the time period between the beginning of the European session and until the middle of the American one, when all deals must be closed manually.</p>
<p>5) On the 30-minute TF, using signals from the MACD indicator, you can trade only if there is good volatility and a trend, which is confirmed by a trend line or a trend channel.</p>
<p>6) If two levels are located too close to each other (from 5 to 15 points), then they should be considered as an area of support or resistance.</p>
<p>On the chart:</p>
<p>Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.</p>
<p>Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.</p>
<p>The MACD indicator (14,22,3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines).</p>
<p>Important speeches and reports (always contained in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their exit, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement.</p>
<p>Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.</p>
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - <a href='https://www.instaforex.com/?x=BPDZ'>www.instaforex.com</a>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5938333445872059120.post-79023320010437919892021-12-12T19:08:00.001+08:002021-12-12T19:08:54.841+08:00Analysis of GBP/USD on December 11. Goldman Sachs does not believe in a rate hike by the Bank of England.<h2><img width="450" src="https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20211211/analytics61b4f21e12f6d.jpg" alt="analytics61b4f21e12f6d.jpg" /></h2>
<div>Wave pattern.</div>
<div>For the pound/dollar instrument, the wave marking continues to look quite complicated, but at the same time quite convincing. If the current wave pattern is correct, then now the construction of the last wave in the composition of C. The decline in the quotes of the British dollar in recent days leads me to think that the wave e-C may take a longer form than I expected earlier, but at the same time, it is time for it to end. Unfortunately, the news background is not on the side of the pound sterling right now, and the markets may continue to increase demand for the dollar. The departure of quotes from the lows reached on Friday can be interpreted as the completion of the wave e-C, but the increase in the instrument is still too small to make such a loud conclusion. I am waiting for the EUR/USD instrument to build another downward wave, so the GBP/USD instrument can continue building an elongated wave e at this time. It would be ideal if both instruments completed the construction of their downward trend sections at the same time.</div>
<div>The market has been expecting a rate hike from the Bank of England for some time, but it is no longer waiting.</div>
<div>The exchange rate of the pound/dollar instrument increased by 50 basis points during Friday. At the moment, the instrument has made an unsuccessful attempt to break through the 1.3271 mark, which corresponds to 61.8% Fibonacci. To be more precise, on Friday evening, it had just reached this mark and had not yet had time to test it. Thus, a successful breakout attempt will assure me that the downward trend section is indeed completed. Unsuccessful – will lead to a new complication of the descending section. Next week, not only the ECB and the Fed will hold meetings. The Bank of England will not stand aside either. A month ago, it unexpectedly made it clear to the markets that it could tighten monetary policy in the coming months. Even in December. However, the events of recent weeks have forced analysts to revise their forecasts. A new wave of the epidemic continues to gain strength in the UK, and a wave of the omicron strain is beginning to gain momentum around the world. Precisely because of the uncertainty with the new strain, the Bank of England is likely to postpone the decision to raise the rate until February. Goldman Sachs experts think so. In February, the Bank of England may raise the rate by 15 basis points. Earlier, analysts at Barclays and JPMorgan made a similar conclusion. Thus, next week the British regulator may take a neutral and wait-and-see position. This Friday, reports on GDP and industrial production in the UK turned out to be weaker than market expectations, which may be an additional factor in postponing tightening to a later date. And if so, then the Briton loses this factor of the news background, which could support him. The only hope now is for wave marking.</div>
<div>General conclusions</div>
<div>The wave pattern of the pound/dollar instrument looks quite convincing now. The supposed wave e could have completed its construction, but there are still doubts about this. Thus, now I would advise you to wait for a successful attempt to break through the 1.3271 mark, which is equal to 61.8% by Fibonacci, and then gradually buy the instrument.</div>
<p><img width="450" src="https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20211211/analytics61b4f2249d187.jpg" alt="analytics61b4f2249d187.jpg" /></p>
<div>Senior schedule.</div>
<div>Starting from January 6, the construction of a downward trend section continues, which can turn out to be almost any size and any length. At this time, the proposed wave C may be nearing its completion (or completed), but there is no unambiguous confirmation of this yet. The entire downward section of the trend may lengthen more than once.</div>
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - <a href='https://www.instaforex.com/?x=BPDZ'>www.instaforex.com</a>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5938333445872059120.post-38714880145126900742021-12-12T18:08:00.001+08:002021-12-12T18:08:07.596+08:00EUR/USD analysis on December 11. The week is over – the euro currency has refrained from a new decline.<h2><img width="450" src="https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20211211/analytics61b4dc22db697.jpg" alt="analytics61b4dc22db697.jpg" /></h2>
<p>Wave pattern.</p>
<p>The wave marking of the 4-hour chart for the euro/dollar instrument continues to remain integral and does not require any changes. At this time, the construction of the proposed wave C is continuing, which is likely to take a five-wave form. Presumably, the construction of an upward wave d-C. And, if the current wave marking is correct, the internal wave e-C is being built now, and a successful attempt to break through the 100.0% Fibonacci level indicates the readiness of the markets for new sales of the instrument. Thus, the decline of the instrument may continue next week with targets located near the estimated mark of 1.1152, which is equivalent to 127.2% by Fibonacci, where the entire trend section can complete its construction. I also draw attention to the fact that wave C takes a corrective form. And the entire downward section of the trend, which originates in January 2021, may take not a three-wave, but a five-wave form A-B-C-D-E. However, it will be possible to talk about this when at least wave C completes its construction.</p>
<p>Inflation in the US rose to a record 6.8%.</p>
<p>The news background for the EUR/USD instrument was strong on Friday. And all this strength was only in one report – inflation in the United States. In the morning, ECB President Christine Lagarde gave a speech in the European Union, but, as often happens, Lagarde did not talk about the economy or monetary policy. Or the markets have not received any fundamentally new information. In general, there was no reaction to her speech. Thus, since Thursday, the markets have fully focused their attention on the report on American inflation, and when it came out on Friday, they seemed confused. The consumer price index rose to 6.8% y/y in November. And this value fully corresponded to market expectations. And this factor seems to have restrained the markets from new purchases of the US currency. Previously, when inflation either exceeded the forecast or simply grew, the dollar often rose. However, on Friday, on the contrary, it decreased. The instrument increased by 25 basis points at the end of the day and at this time it is not entirely clear whether wave d is completed? Under certain circumstances, this wave may take on a more extended form. However, at this time it also looks quite complete. The US currency missed a great opportunity on Friday to continue the increase, which would fully correspond to the current wave markup. However, the ECB and the Fed will meet next week, so it is almost impossible to predict where the instrument will be by its end. One thing is for sure – we are in for a very interesting week.</p>
<p>General conclusions.</p>
<p>Based on the analysis, I conclude that the construction of the descending wave C can be completed. However, the internal wave structure of this wave inclines me more and more to the opinion that another descending wave e will be built. Thus, I advise selling the instrument with targets located around the 1.1152 mark, for each MACD signal "down".</p>
<p><img width="450" src="https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20211211/analytics61b4dc2a8d5fd.jpg" alt="analytics61b4dc2a8d5fd.jpg" /></p>
<p>Senior schedule.</p>
<p>The wave marking of the higher scale looks quite convincing. The decline in quotes continues and now the downward section of the trend, which originates on May 25, takes the form of a three-wave correction structure A-B-C. Thus, the decline may continue for at least a few more weeks until wave C is fully completed (it should take a five-wave form in this case).</p>
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - <a href='https://www.instaforex.com/?x=BPDZ'>www.instaforex.com</a>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5938333445872059120.post-3083443905139549272021-12-12T17:08:00.001+08:002021-12-12T17:08:04.143+08:00The Fed will continue to drag bitcoin to the bottom<p><img width="450" src="https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20211211/analytics61b4bc5c5c4ea.jpg" alt="analytics61b4bc5c5c4ea.jpg" /></p>
<p>Over the past year, we have regularly talked about the fact that the growth of bitcoin, like many stocks and other assets, is largely accidental. If there had been no pandemic, if there had not been trillions of dollars printed by central banks and created in their accounts, the markets would not have inflated like soap bubbles. Thus, bitcoin grew primarily not on increased demand with unchanged supply, but on the increased money supply, which had to be put somewhere. Formally, the demand for bitcoin (and many other assets) was growing. Therefore, its course also grew. But they did not grow based on fundamental factors. Not based on the fact that Bitcoin is getting better. Not on the basis that it displaces fiat money and becomes closer to the people. No, it is also an investment tool and, according to various analytical agencies, more than 80% of coins are already concentrated in the hands of large and institutional investors. Thus, when the Fed stops its QE program, the growth of bitcoin will have to at least stop, because the cash flow to the cryptocurrency market will stop. Accordingly, demand will stop growing. Perhaps, by the way, in this case, mass sales will not follow. First, because there will be no less money in the economy, only the growth of the money supply will stop. Second, because inflation should decrease first, and only then investors can think about transferring their capital from risky bitcoin to quieter and less profitable assets. After all, with inflation of almost 7%, hardly anyone is eager to invest in US Treasury bonds with their yield of 1.25-1.5%. Nevertheless, the "Fed factor", from our point of view, will stall the growth of the main cryptocurrency.</p>
<p>Robert Kiyosaki: markets may collapse due to "fake inflation".</p>
<p>A similar opinion is shared by the author of the bestseller "Rich Dad, Poor Dad" Robert Kiyosaki. He believes that soon the value of precious metals, real estate, and cryptocurrencies may collapse down. This will happen because of the "fake inflation", which is managed by Jerome Powell and Joe Biden. "Collapse and depression are coming. It's time to get richer after the collapse of fake inflation," Kiyosaki wrote on Twitter, who in the last few months has been calling for buying gold, silver, and bitcoin after the collapse. We would like to clarify right away that Kiyosaki had previously predicted a crash in October, which, as we see, did not happen. Thus, we recall that any forecasts should be treated very carefully. Technical confirmation of any fundamental hypothesis or any assumption is always required.</p>
<p><img width="450" src="https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20211211/analytics61b4bc6994942.jpg" alt="analytics61b4bc6994942.jpg" /></p>
<p>A very important event happened in the 24-hour timeframe. The quotes of the "bitcoin" are fixed below the ascending trend line, so the "bullish" trend is broken on the long-term TF. Consequently, the fall may continue. We have already outlined the goals in the previous article, they are also clearly visible in the illustration above. It should be noted that the price is also now below the Senkou Span B and Kijun-sen lines. Therefore, the technical picture says an unambiguous "down" BTC.</p>
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - <a href='https://www.instaforex.com/?x=BPDZ'>www.instaforex.com</a>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5938333445872059120.post-71350634640123244572021-12-12T16:08:00.001+08:002021-12-12T16:08:25.380+08:00A return to 30,000 is more than likely<h2><img width="450" src="https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20211211/analytics61b4b614dafea.jpg" alt="analytics61b4b614dafea.jpg" /></h2>
<div>Bitcoin ends the week near the $48,000 level.</div>
<div>Bitcoin ends the week where it should have done. Of course, making forecasts for bitcoin is always a thankless task, since this cryptocurrency is too volatile. Nevertheless, the situation on the market now is such that there are more reasons for a new fall in "digital gold" than there are reasons for growth. Let's look at it in more detail. First, it should be noted right away that the cryptocurrency has not been able to significantly update its annual highs. Second, the cryptocurrency has not been able to reach $ 100,000 per coin and even up to $ 75,000 in 2021, as predicted by the absolute majority of experts. Third, the Fed has begun to curtail the quantitative stimulus program, so the "bubble" in the cryptocurrency market will stop inflating. Fourth, the bankruptcy of Evergrande can have a very negative impact on risky assets and provoke a wave of bankruptcies and falling markets. Of course, the bitcoin exchange rate largely depends on the mood of market participants and their belief in its growth. If tomorrow the majority of market participants decide that bitcoin has the potential for further growth and continues to buy it, this will provoke a new rise in the price of this cryptocurrency. And the market's decision may be completely unrelated to the fundamental background: bitcoin grew far not only in those times when there were reasons for this. However, if we still take into account the fundamental background and make forecasts based on it, then most factors indicate that the decline will continue. Recall that we predicted bitcoin going below $30,000 back in the summer. It was a surprise for us to see an increase to annual highs, as there were no good reasons for this.</div>
<div>An investment tool, not a replacement for fiat money.</div>
<div>However, it should be remembered that bitcoin has been and remains an investment tool, not a means of payment. If we were talking about a currency, then its fall by 80-90% would not be possible, since it cannot happen that suddenly everyone does not need this currency. But in the case of bitcoin, this is possible, because if investors feel that the "bullish" trend is over, then sales will follow. Of course, there are also institutional and large investors who can afford to keep bitcoin on their balance sheet for years or decades. However, in this case, it is difficult to imagine what will happen to bitcoin at all. Its issue is limited and if 80-90% of coins will just lie on the wallets of billionaires, then the cryptocurrency will simply be abandoned since it will be constantly in short supply. In general, it is still very difficult to classify "bitcoin". It seems to have been created to be a substitute for fiat money but acts as a risky investment tool and an inflation hedging tool.</div>
<p><img width="450" src="https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20211211/analytics61b4b62029a31.jpg" alt="analytics61b4b62029a31.jpg" /></p>
<div>The trend on the 4-hour timeframe is downward and now there is a downward trend line that supports the further fall of the "bitcoin". The cryptocurrency is located below the Ichimoku cloud, so even at the current TF, there are no prerequisites for the start of growth yet. The nearest target levels are $46,600, $43852, and $40,746. It will be possible to count on new growth of the "bitcoin" only if its quotes are fixed above the trend line. From our point of view, a new downward trend is emerging now.</div>
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - <a href='https://www.instaforex.com/?x=BPDZ'>www.instaforex.com</a>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5938333445872059120.post-78701428032723649582021-12-12T15:08:00.001+08:002021-12-12T15:08:36.089+08:00Analysis of the trading week of December 6-10 for the GBP/USD pair. New COT (Commitments of Traders) report. A perfect technical<p>Analysis of GBP/USD 24-hour TF.</p>
<p><img width="450" src="https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20211211/analytics61b4aa85c16e5.jpg" alt="analytics61b4aa85c16e5.jpg" /></p>
<p>The GBP/USD currency pair has worked out the 1.3162 level during the current week, which is an important 38.2% Fibonacci level. Thus, a rebound from this level was very likely in any case. And it happened. Now the pair will try to show a more or less strong correction. However, both pairs have obvious problems with the correction. Both are adjusted very reluctantly and very strained. Therefore, the pound/dollar pair now has chances to grow towards the critical Kijun-sen line, but at the same time, if the downward movement resumes on Monday, we will not be surprised at all. On the one hand, the pound, like the euro, is in decline for most of 2021. And this fall can still be interpreted as a correction against the global upward trend. Actually, at the moment, the pair has managed to adjust by only 38.2%. However, the fundamental background may continue to force traders to sell the pound and buy the dollar. Recall that in recent weeks, extremely unpleasant reports and news have been received from the UK. First the "fuel" crisis, then the "logistics" crisis, then the conflict over the "Northern Ireland protocol" with the European Union, then the conflicts with France on the "fish" issue and illegal migration. To top it all off, Boris Johnson got into a corruption scandal and a Christmas party scandal last year. Thus, all these factors do not contribute to the growth of the British currency. In addition, the pressure on the pair continues to be exerted by the fact that the Fed is ready to continue to wind down the QE program, and immediately after its completion – to start raising the key rate. The Bank of England, which showed in November that it could also raise the rate and start curtailing QE, may abandon these plans in December due to a new strong "wave" of the pandemic in the UK.</p>
<p>Analysis of the COT report.</p>
<p><img width="450" src="https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20211211/analytics61b4aa8be2c8c.jpg" alt="analytics61b4aa8be2c8c.jpg" /></p>
<p>During the last reporting week, the mood of professional traders became a little less "bearish". Professional traders closed 3.6 thousand contracts for sale and 2.1 thousand contracts for purchase during the week. Thus, the net position for the "Non-commercial" group of traders increased by 1.5 thousand contracts. This is a very small change even for the British pound. In general, the mood of non-commercial traders continues to be "bearish", and quite strong. We draw the attention of traders to how low the green line of the first indicator is located in the illustration above, which reflects the net position of the "Non-commercial" group. Thus, unlike the European currency, the fall of the pound sterling in recent weeks looks just logical: major players sell off the currency, and it falls. A further fall in the British currency is also now quite likely, but at the same time, we draw the attention of traders to the fact that the green and red lines of the first indicator have moved quite far from each other. This may indicate that the downward trend is drying up. Thus, we get a situation in which the euro currency is not moving down quite logically, and the pound sterling may complete its movement in the near future. Thus, for both major pairs, we recommend waiting for the downward trend to end, but do not start buying until specific buy signals are formed.</p>
<p>Analysis of fundamental events.</p>
<p>There is an extremely small amount of important news and events in the UK this week. Only on Friday, a report on GDP was published, which turned out to be significantly weaker than forecasts, as well as a report on industrial production, which also fell short of forecasts. However, despite these disastrous statistics, at the end of the day, the pound rose in price, although in the first half of Friday it was still declining. However, the report on American inflation quite unexpectedly provoked a drop in the dollar. It seems that the markets no longer consider the growth of inflation in the States as a factor in accelerating the pace of curtailing the QE program or faster rate hikes. Or maybe the downtrend is just nearing its end since the growth factors of the dollar have already been played out several times. Anyway, so far we are talking only about a correction, which may later turn into an upward trend.</p>
<p>Trading plan for the week of December 13-17:</p>
<p>1) The pound/dollar pair maintains a downward trend. Therefore, purchases are still not relevant now. We need to wait for the pair to consolidate above the critical line, or even better - above the Ichimoku cloud. We still assume that the pair may go up 400-500 points in the coming month. But a lot next week will depend on the outcome of the meeting of the Fed and the Bank of England. The fundamental background will be very strong, which we will talk about in the following articles, and the British pound will count on support from the Bank of England.</p>
<p>2) Bears continue to hold the pair below the critical line. The targets for further movement to the South are now the support levels of 1.3094 and 1.2891. However, at least a small upward correction should take place first. If the pair's quotes bounce off the critical line, this may trigger a resumption of the downtrend with the specified goals.</p>
<p>Explanations to the illustrations:</p>
<p>Price levels of support and resistance (resistance /support), Fibonacci levels – target levels when opening purchases or sales. Take Profit levels can be placed near them.</p>
<p>Ichimoku indicators(standard settings), Bollinger Bands(standard settings), MACD(5, 34, 5).</p>
<p>Indicator 1 on the COT charts - the net position size of each category of traders.</p>
<p>Indicator 2 on the COT charts - the net position size for the "Non-commercial" group.</p>
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - <a href='https://www.instaforex.com/?x=BPDZ'>www.instaforex.com</a>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5938333445872059120.post-1125458075917763992021-12-12T07:08:00.001+08:002021-12-12T07:08:24.769+08:00Bull market is culminating in bitcoin's potential to hit new all-time high or decline below $30,000<p>After its recent plunge bitcoin has managed to stabilize and is holding steady at $48,000. Another positive aspect is that the market reacted calmly to the news on inflation growth, also indicating the stability of the current consolidation range. However, there are signals that the coin will hold below $50,000 for about a week, accumulating the necessary volumes for growth. Taking this fact into account, it is worth considering likely scenarios for price movement in a bull market or identifying likely targets for a correction if the current growth cycle ends.</p>
<h4>Bitcoin at crossroads</h4>
<p>The cryptocurrency's positions are quite weak even despite its successful consolidation above $48,000. Bitcoin's further upward movement is limited due to the lack of necessary volumes and investors' fear. The asset crossed the no-return line at $52,000, which made analysts reconsider the technical analysis. Well-known analyst PlanB, who predicted the coin to climb $98,000 in November and $100,000 at the end of 2021, expressed his view. The expert stated that the coin was at a crossroads and could both resume a bull rally and enter a full bull market. I support that view. However, I stick to the bullish scenario, according to which bitcoin is in the embryonic state of the fifth wave of growth, and the current correction was caused by a complicated structure of the 4th wave in a five-wave structure. At the same time, I do not exclude the possibility that the price could go down and a bear market starts.</p>
<p><img width="450" src="https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20211211/analytics61b49af08a567.jpg" alt="analytics61b49af08a567.jpg" /></p>
<h4>Positive scenario</h4>
<p>In a positive scenario, bitcoin has not hit its high in the current growth cycle yet. It indicates that at least one more wave of growth is expected, which will occur at the end of 2021 and the beginning of 2022. I also back this idea, and I believe that the price of the cryptocurrency still retains the potential to move towards $75,000-$80,000. Considering that in the next week and a half the asset will try to recover above $62,000, I assume that BTC will mostly rise in early January.</p>
<p><img width="450" src="https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20211211/analytics61b49b6994f37.jpg" alt="analytics61b49b6994f37.jpg" /></p>
<h4>Negative scenario</h4>
<p>In a negative scenario, bitcoin heads into a full bear market, which historically comes with a correction up to 80% of ATH. This is an extremely negative scenario in which the crypto's downside potential is estimated to be around $14,000. The PlanB analyst believes that a sharp drop in quotations is unlikely as the asset has not hit its high in the current cycle yet. Even with an immediate correction, the market would most likely not allow BTC to fall below $20,000, the high of 2017. Considering $69,000 as the absolute high of the current price movement period, a correction to the $25,000-$30,000 range is possible. However, it is more likely to be around the previous local low at $28,700.</p>
<p><img width="450" src="https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20211211/analytics61b49c4e6eb19.jpg" alt="analytics61b49c4e6eb19.jpg" /></p>
<h4>Current situation</h4>
<p>As of 2:00 pm, bitcoin is moving in a narrow downward channel of $46,000-$51,200, which could be broken in the near future. This is indicated by the tightening and formation of a triangle pattern with a high chance of being broken upward. Technical indicators of the cryptocurrency confirm this fact: the stochastic oscillator has formed a bullish cross and is starting an upward movement in the bullish zone. It indicates the emergence of upward momentum, and the growth of the relative strength index to the 50 mark, refers to the activity of bulls and the start of the accumulation period with a parallel exit from the channel. In case of a successful break the price has good chances to go towards the Fibo level of 0.236 and to consolidate above the psychological mark of $50,000. With such a scenario the range of $50,000-$60,000 becomes the key one for the third week of December, indicating the movement to the new highs before 2022.</p>
<p><img width="450" src="https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20211211/analytics61b49c587a223.jpg" alt="analytics61b49c587a223.jpg" /></p>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5938333445872059120.post-19271849609396332822021-12-11T07:08:00.001+08:002021-12-11T07:08:36.074+08:00EUR/USD. Time bomb: US inflation sets a 39-year record<p>The U.S. inflation did not disappoint, but it did not surprise traders with a breakout growth either. Almost all components of the macroeconomic report came out in accordance with the forecast, so they did not cause much excitement in the market. And yet Friday's release plays a crucial role in determining the future prospects of the greenback.</p>
<p>Inflation in the U.S. is still at a high level, and this fact suggests that the Fed will not limit itself to an early tapering of QE. The probability of an interest rate increase within the next year is growing "by leaps and bounds," especially since many representatives of the Fed openly advocate the implementation of this scenario. Some of them also allow the option of a double increase, and with a fairly short interval in order to curb the spike in inflation.</p>
<p><img width="450" src="https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20211210/analytics61b38767097d3.jpg" alt="analytics61b38767097d3.jpg" /></p>
<p>The consumer price index is indeed at the level of multi-year highs. Thus, according to published data, the overall CPI in November accelerated to 6.8% YoY. This is the maximum value of the indicator for the last 39 years. The last time this indicator was at this level was in 1982. On a monthly basis, the index also showed positive dynamics, rising to 0.8% (with a slight decline forecast to 0.7%). The core consumer price index, excluding volatile food and energy prices, similarly remained at a high level: an increase of up to 0.5% MoM, and 4.9% YoY was recorded. This is again a long-term record: the last time the index produced such results was in July 1991.</p>
<p>The structure of the released data suggests that energy prices have increased by 33% since November 2020, and by 3.5% over the past month. Over the year, gasoline has risen in price by 58%, groceries by 6%, and used cars and trucks by 31%. According to experts, these components have become the main reasons for high inflation (and not only last month, but also in previous ones). However, November still distinguished itself: the growth rate of food and energy prices (on an annualized basis) became the fastest in the last 13 years.</p>
<p>Also, recall that the most preferred inflation indicator by the Federal Reserve - the index of personal consumption expenditures (PCE) – also significantly exceeds the target level of the regulator. It is believed that this indicator is monitored by members of the U.S. regulator "with particular bias." The core PCE index, which does not take into account volatile food and energy prices, rose in October to 4.1% (in annual terms). At the same time, the result of September was revised upwards (from 3.6% to 3.7%). In August, July, and June, the indicator came out at 3.6%.</p>
<p>Against the background of such inflationary trends, there is no doubt that the Federal Reserve, at its last meeting this year (the results of which will be announced on December 16), will decide to accelerate the pace of curtailing the stimulus program – from $15 to $30 billion per month. Thus, QE will end its operation in March next year. Obviously, the next step of the Federal Reserve will be to tighten the parameters of monetary policy.</p>
<p>Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is in no hurry to talk about the fate of the interest rate at the moment. The relevant conclusions were made by the market, so to speak, "independently." Representatives of the "hawk wing" of the Fed, of course, add fuel to the fire, but still, there is a certain intrigue. Partly for this reason, dollar bulls are in no hurry to "uncork the champagne," creating a premature hype around the U.S. currency. The phlegmatic reaction to Friday's release is another confirmation of that.</p>
<p>In addition, the so-called "Friday factor" also played a role: traders take profits by closing short positions. There are also few people willing to go into sales on the eve of the weekend. Therefore, the EUR/USD pair reflexively reacted with a decline to the level of 1.1264, but then returned to the "neutral" territory again, having flown 12 and 13 figures on the border.</p>
<p><img width="450" src="https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20211210/analytics61b387543b43f.jpg" alt="analytics61b387543b43f.jpg" /></p>
<p><img width="450" src="https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20211210/analytics61b3875c72916.jpg" alt="analytics61b3875c72916.jpg" /></p>
<p>And yet, in my opinion, Friday's release has become another argument for further strengthening of the U.S. currency. This is a kind of "time bomb" that will work a little later – but it will definitely work.</p>
<p>At the moment, traders are looking back at the ECB, some representatives of which are urging their colleagues to react to the record increase in inflation in the eurozone. A certain informational illusion is being created that the European Central Bank will follow in the footsteps of the Federal Reserve.</p>
<p>But I would venture to assume that the EUR/USD bulls will eventually be disappointed by the ECB's "hawkishness," which will only be expressed in the fact that the regulator will stipulate the limits of the increase in the asset purchase program (APP) after the completion of the pandemic emergency purchase program (PEPP). If, in turn, the Fed completes QE in March and announces a rate hike in June-July, then the divergence of the ECB and Fed positions will "sparkle with new colors," strengthening the position of the greenback.</p>
<p>Thus, in the long term, short positions on the EUR/USD pair will be in priority, due to the likely strengthening of the U.S. dollar. If we talk about the prospect for the coming days, emotions will come to the fore - emotional trading decisions on the eve of the Fed and ECB meetings. Most likely, the pair will continue to trade in the range of 1.1260-1.1360 (until December 16), starting from the boundaries of the echelon.</p>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5938333445872059120.post-73777354292771517082021-12-11T06:08:00.001+08:002021-12-11T06:08:43.894+08:00Ethereum updates amid growing on-chain activity: when will altcoin update its absolute maximum?<p>Among all the assets from the top 10, Ethereum feels the most confident and continues the recovery period before updating the historical record. Unlike the situation with Bitcoin, Ethereum has many fundamental factors that suggest the beginning of a powerful upward movement to levels above $6k.</p>
<p>The main factor of the impending bullish rally of the coin is a significant increase in on-chain indicators. Over the past two weeks, there has been a steady increase in the number of unique addresses with local drawdowns. Transaction volumes also remain at a fairly high level and do not fall during small periods of price reduction. The activation of the altcoin audience has always contributed to the early start of the bull market, and given the confident position of the cryptocurrency, there is no reason to believe that the situation will change in December.</p>
<p><img width="450" src="https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20211210/analytics61b3715295f0b.jpg" alt="analytics61b3715295f0b.jpg" /></p>
<p><img width="450" src="https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20211210/analytics61b3715bd0735.jpg" alt="analytics61b3715bd0735.jpg" /></p>
<p>Technical factors significantly contributed to the growth of on-chain activity. Two weeks ago, many crypto analysts called Ethereum "the altcoin for the rich," since the average commission on the coin network reached $64.</p>
<p>However, over the past week, this indicator has tripled and continues to decline. This is indirect evidence of the functioning of individual London upgrade protocols and contributes to the growth of the number of unique addresses. Positive dynamics is also visible on the on-chain address balance metric, which confirms the thesis of reducing the exchange balances of ETH coins to a three-year minimum.</p>
<p>Also, note that the growth of on-chain activity and the stability of the cryptocurrency was helped by the local update of Arrow Glacier, which delayed the activation of the complexity bomb (the mechanism freezes the network and reduces the reward of miners).</p>
<p><img width="450" src="https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20211210/analytics61b371664a89d.jpg" alt="analytics61b371664a89d.jpg" /></p>
<p>We have considered the key and fundamental factors of a possible bullish rally in the price of Ether. Now we turn to the immediate situation on the market. The main reason for optimism about the main altcoin is the fall of Bitcoin dominance to 40. At the same time, the dominance of ETH has increased to 20.8% over the past three weeks.</p>
<p>The combination of these factors allows Ethereum to show growth and not depend on the situation with Bitcoin. And even though BTC is starting to win back positions, Ether has enough time to resume growth and, at least, reach the previous peak in value.</p>
<p><img width="450" src="https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20211210/analytics61b388e4c6654.jpg" alt="analytics61b388e4c6654.jpg" /></p>
<p><img width="450" src="https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20211210/analytics61b388e815632.jpg" alt="analytics61b388e815632.jpg" /></p>
<p>The daily pattern of ETH indicates a local consolidation period with little unrest due to the expiration period and the mental anguish of Bitcoin. However, buyers can be calm for the bullish crypto market, while ETH/USD confidently holds the support area at $4k. If this position is maintained, the coin will continue to fluctuate between the support zone and the absolute maximum line, followed by its bullish breakthrough and movement to the $6k-$6.2k area.</p>
<p>At the same time, there is a possibility of a repeated retest of $3.6k, although it is hard to believe in the current market situation. The daily red candle has already formed a small lower wick, which indicates the strength of buyers. With this in mind, a decline below $4k looks unlikely so far.</p>
<p><img width="450" src="https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20211210/analytics61b388eb36f45.jpg" alt="analytics61b388eb36f45.jpg" /></p>
<p>Despite the positive situation around the main altcoin, technical indicators signal a weakening and lack of upward momentum. The MACD is moving in the red zone, and the stochastic has formed a bearish intersection and is declining in the bullish zone.</p>
<p>This is a healthy situation with price stabilization and, taking into account the increase in volatility over the weekend, this trend may last until the end of this week. However, if a positive announcement is fired on the weekend, then the timing of the start of the bull rally of the coin will shift. As of 14:00 UTC, the altcoin will presumably continue to fluctuate around $4k-$4.5k on the upcoming weekend, and next week it may get close to ATH and update it.</p>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5938333445872059120.post-88295823713155780092021-12-11T05:08:00.001+08:002021-12-11T05:08:10.194+08:00The rise in US prices confirms the expectation of hawkish signals from the Fed<p>The previous month was a record for retail prices in the United States for almost 40 years. Rapid and persistent inflation undermines employers' salary funds and increases pressure on the Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy.</p>
<p>According to the Ministry of Labor, published on Friday, the consumer price index increased by 6.8% (data for the year starting from November 2020 inclusive). The widely watched inflation indicator has risen 0.8% since October, exceeding economists' forecasts and continuing the trend of significant increases that began earlier this year.</p>
<p>The average forecast figures provided for an annual increase of 6.8% and an increase of 0.7% on a monthly basis. The yield on 10-year Treasury bonds declined, futures on the S&P 500 index rose and continue to rise. The dollar fell at the time of the opening of the New York session, as the indicators as a whole turned out to be no worse than expected. But let us recall that these expectations were adjusted to take into account a serious increase in October.</p>
<p><img width="450" src="https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20211210/analytics61b36d865447f.jpg" alt="analytics61b36d865447f.jpg" /></p>
<p>The increase in CPI reflects a significant increase in most categories. Gasoline, housing, food, and cars contributed the most to the growth compared to the previous month.</p>
<p>These data lead investors to expect that the Fed will accelerate the winding down of its bond-buying program at the final meeting of the central bank this year next week. Governments in most countries are now under increasing pressure to deal with rising inflation as workers spend more at grocery stores and gas stations.</p>
<p>This figure "just puts pressure on the Federal Reserve," Kathy Bostjancic, a chief financial economist at Oxford Economics, said on Bloomberg Television. "This is a very difficult period for them."</p>
<p>Inflation "will remain hot and sticky during the first quarter", she believes.</p>
<p>A faster rate cut would open up an opportunity for the Fed to start raising the benchmark interest rate. At the same time, investors bet on a sharp increase in Fed rates in 2022, pointing out that Friday's data showed a higher chance of slowing inflation, given that the monthly change was less than in October.</p>
<p>Annual CPI growth is expected to be around 7% by 2022.</p>
<p>Core inflation</p>
<p>Excluding food and energy, base prices increased by 0.5% compared to the previous month. Overall, the core consumer price index rose by 4.9% compared to last year, reaching a new 30-year high.</p>
<p>The cost of housing, which is considered the most significant component of the CPI and accounts for about a third of the overall index, increased by 0.5% in November compared to a month earlier.</p>
<p>Compared to the same month last year, the 3.8% increase was the largest since 2007. Housing costs are expected to rise next year as rent increases follow property prices, with a slightly delayed effect.</p>
<p>Furniture, clothing, and airline tickets also contributed to the rise in inflation.</p>
<p>Household consumption increased by 6.4% compared to last year, which is the highest since December 2008. Total spending on food, including away from home, increased by 6.1% compared to a year earlier - the highest since 2008.</p>
<p>Gasoline rose by 6.1% compared to the previous month, which corresponds to the volume of growth in October.</p>
<p>The rental of basic housing and the equivalent rent of owners increased by 0.4% from October.</p>
<p><img width="450" src="https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20211210/analytics61b36da28f3b5.jpg" alt="analytics61b36da28f3b5.jpg" /></p>
<p>As a result of a serious price increase and a tumultuous policy regarding the Ukrainian-Russian conflict, Joe Biden's approval rating fell, which increased political pressure on the administration, forcing the president's entourage to move more actively.</p>
<p>And although the White House has taken some steps - for example, creating a task force on the supply chain - inflationary pressures continue to grow. Rapid inflation is also likely to affect the final size and fate of Biden's Build Back Better bill.</p>
<p>Next year, supply chain problems will continue to drive up prices in the short term, but economists expect this factor to disappear as Americans move to more normal consumption patterns. However, other factors, such as labor shortages and housing costs, can keep inflation at a high level.</p>
<p>According to David McLennan, chief executive officer of Cargill Inc., food prices are also likely to remain high next year.</p>
<p>"I thought that inflation in agriculture and food was temporary. Now I feel less because of the ongoing shortage in the labor markets," McLennan said last month in an interview at the Bloomberg New Economy Forum in Singapore. "This is one of the entrances to the supply chain that we are closely monitoring."</p>
<p>Wages have also been showing growth in recent months, but lagging behind consumption. The average hourly wage may show a nominal increase, but adjusted for inflation, the real level fell by 1.9% in November compared to a year earlier. This is the biggest rebound in six months.</p>
<p>Inflation or stagflation?</p>
<p>The growth of a new variant of coronavirus has raised concerns about a double blow to the US economy in the form of slowing growth on the one hand, and still high inflation on the other. While supply chains are collapsing after the collapse, local governments are considering new restrictions, and consumers are assessing not only the health risks in everyday life but also pre-holiday expenses.</p>
<p>And yet, so far, economists see the risk of "stagflation" - that toxic mixture of weak growth and strong inflation, which significantly worsens the prospects for recovery - by only half.</p>
<p>It is obvious that prices are rising more noticeably in the United States than anywhere else, but the growth rate has also turned out to be more stable than politicians expected. Now it is quite difficult to judge how far this growth is from stagnation, and whether it will continue next year at a rate above average, which can push Americans to look for work for several months.</p>
<p>The level of consumption in the United States reached pre-pandemic indicators in the previous reporting periods.</p>
<p>Still, some forecasters have lowered their forecasts for U.S. gross domestic product growth. As we know, the forecasts of Goldman Sachs and other banks for the next year have been regularly declining since spring. And there are no grounds for revision for the better yet: data on travel by US airlines, restaurant visits, and credit card expenses so far do not show obvious changes in recent weeks, since the risk of the Covid-19 threat persists.</p>
<p>But not everyone thinks so.</p>
<p>"We will not see stagflation. We will see an inflationary boom with continued strong growth and price growth rates, which have already prompted the Fed to reorient policy to contain inflation," Glenn Hubbard, chairman of the Economic Council, commented on this. Hubbard served as an advisor to former President George W. Bush and is now a professor of economics at Columbia University.</p>
<p>Median forecasts of economists showed that they expect growth in the United States in 2022 at the level of 3.9% (the forecast repeats the November one).</p>
<p>Federal Reserve policymakers will release their new forecasts next week at a meeting that is expected to begin with a proposal for tougher measures to ensure that inflation remains under control. These forecasts are likely to describe an economy approaching full employment next year and continuing to grow faster than before the pandemic.</p>
<p>The unemployment rate in November at 4.2% is already significantly lower than the level of 4.8% in September and is close to the level of 4%, which is considered sustainable in the long term.</p>
<p>Postcovid-economy</p>
<p>Policymakers may also start raising rates more quickly and approve plans to end current bond purchases in March, rather than in June 2022, as previously planned.</p>
<p>It is still too early to try to understand how the Omicron variant will behave, and how people will tolerate its distribution.</p>
<p>If it turns out to be faster, less dangerous to vaccinate, and as deadly as Delta, it could trigger a new wave of restrictions in some countries and plant closures or travel in others, potentially adversely affecting global growth and jobs.</p>
<p>"Countries simply cannot repeat the big monetary policy push, the big fiscal policy push that they have been able to make over the past two years. This cannot happen again," Gita Gopinath, chief economist at the International Monetary Fund, said at an event in Geneva on Thursday.</p>
<p>If the Omicron option causes a new and serious economic shock, "we will face a real risk of what we have avoided so far, namely stagflation."</p>
<p>But so far, markets, analysts, and economic data do not reflect such a worst-case outcome, partly because markets are tired of being afraid of new strains.</p>
<p>The latter option was first identified in early November. Since then, the weekly number of travelers allowed to fly to the United States by the Transportation Security Administration has remained about the same or slightly higher compared to 2019, as it was earlier in the fall. According to the OpenTable booking website, the volume of personal bookings in restaurants has also not changed.</p>
<p>This indicates that people are striving for greater openness and reduction of quarantine measures, tired of restrictions.</p>
<p>A recent study conducted by researchers at the San Francisco Fed noted what has become the main hope of politicians: American businesses and consumers are "used to the coronavirus."</p>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5938333445872059120.post-83886960814503878622021-12-11T04:08:00.001+08:002021-12-11T04:08:36.898+08:00Elon Musk would like to leave Tesla<p>The chief executive officer of Tesla Inc once again shocks shareholders and investors. Elon Musk is "thinking" of quitting his job and becoming an "influential person," the richest man in the world according to Forbes tweeted on Thursday.</p>
<p>"Thinking about quitting my job and becoming a full-time influencer," Musk said in a tweet, without going into details.</p>
<p>It is still unclear whether Musk is serious about being fired, but back in the spring, he complained about social networks that the management takes up a lot of his time, whereas he would like to focus on research.</p>
<p>Elon has gained weight noticeably and changed his haircut – any woman will tell you that these are signs that a person is going through hard times.</p>
<p>Before that in January, Musk, who is also the founder and CEO of rocket company SpaceX, and also runs startup Neuralink and infrastructure firm The Boring Company, said during a conference call that he expects to be CEO of Tesla for "several years." But it's been a tough year for everyone.</p>
<p>For example, last month he asked his Twitter followers if he should sell 10% of his stake in the electric car manufacturer, which most agreed with. Since then, he has sold almost $12 billion worth of shares. Before that, he got rid of all his real estate. Many analysts believe that this is due to the need to cover the costs of taxes.</p>
<p>"It would be nice to have a little more free time than just working day and night, from the moment I wake up to when I fall asleep - 7 days a week. Pretty intense."</p>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5938333445872059120.post-90050212267715136522021-12-11T03:08:00.001+08:002021-12-11T03:08:36.503+08:00The pound hopes for February<p><img width="450" src="https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20211210/analytics61b33f7528fe3.jpg" alt="analytics61b33f7528fe3.jpg" /></p>
<p>The ideas for the weakening of the dollar did not work, the US currency index ended the week above 96.00. Buyers are preparing for the Fed's verdict. The technical picture favors the further growth of the greenback and there is still room for maneuver under the 98.00 mark.</p>
<p>One of the weakest currencies this week was the British pound. The GBP/USD pair fell sharply after the introduction of new quarantine measures in the UK, which, among other things, provide for the transfer of employees to remote work and the provision of vaccination documents when visiting public places.</p>
<p>Weak macro statistics for Britain also did not add a positive to the pound. The deterioration of the epidemic situation will certainly entail a decrease in other indicators, for example, consumer and business activity. In this case, the pound may fall to even lower levels. This is not to mention the consequences of Brexit, which from time to time make themselves felt. Sterling will be vulnerable as long as tensions remain between London and Brussels. This is very noticeable in the EUR/GBP pair, which, by the way, has grown noticeably over the past three weeks.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, since the beginning of the year, the quote has been trading in a long-term downward trend. If the downward movement resumes, selling this currency pair from current levels will be a good idea.</p>
<p>Today, the economic calendar includes data on UK GDP for October, business activity in the service sector, and the volume of production in the manufacturing sector of the country. Industry plays a big role in the final indicator of GDP, so a high value will be a positive factor for the pound, and vice versa. Friday's weaker data will cause even more pressure on the pound, including in the EUR/GBP pair.</p>
<p>The volume of industrial production in October unexpectedly decreased by 0.6%, while analysts announced an increase of 0.1% on a monthly basis. The annual value also went against the forecast. Production expanded by only 1.4%, an increase of 2.2% was expected.</p>
<p>The UK economy also grew weaker than expected. The value was 0.1%, which is a sharp slowdown compared to the monthly growth of 0.6% in September. Reuters economists had predicted monthly growth of 0.4%. There is also a noticeable drawdown in annual terms.</p>
<p><img width="450" src="https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20211210/analytics61b33ef6d11c2.jpg" alt="analytics61b33ef6d11c2.jpg" /></p>
<p>"We have always recognized that there may be obstacles on our way to recovery," Finance Minister Rishi Sunak commented on the situation.</p>
<p>Indicators of a sluggish economic recovery have become another indication that the Bank of England will not tighten policy at its meeting next week. The sentiment of the pound traders fell, which naturally affected the positioning of the British currency.</p>
<p>Based on the failed GDP data, market players made the following conclusion: the rapidly growing inflation rate and Omicron may force the world's fifth largest economy to start shrinking again.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, getting the economy out of recession is much more difficult than suppressing rising inflation. The English regulator has already begun to realize this. Perhaps next week investors will hear sharply dovish comments from the Central Bank.</p>
<p>Key banking analysts such as Barclays and JPMorgan have gradually begun to push back the forecast of the first rate hike by the Bank of England. Now they have been joined by colleagues from Goldman Sachs. Alternatively, a 15 basis point increase could take place at the February meeting. However, this forecast is more like an excuse and looks unrealistic.</p>
<p>Even the most ardent "hawk" in the committee, Michael Saunders, refuses to make predictions and assumptions. First of all, you need to wait for the clarification of the picture on Omicron.</p>
<p>However, if the market considers that the increase is still real in February, then the pound is unlikely to be under serious selling pressure. A lot will depend on the rhetoric of the Bank of England. If doubts are expressed, including regarding February, the pound may depreciate more. The target for the GBP/USD pair will be the 1.3000 mark.</p>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5938333445872059120.post-21440025161583473062021-12-11T01:08:00.001+08:002021-12-11T01:08:36.787+08:00Trading signal for Crude Oil (WTI - #CL) on December 10 - 13, 2021: sell below $71,88 (3/8)<p><img width="450" src="https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20211210/analytics61b374a9b7dc3.jpg" alt="analytics61b374a9b7dc3.jpg" /></p>
<p>Crude Oil (WTI- #CL) is trading below the 21 SMA located at 71.80 and below the bearish channel formed since November 24 and below 3/8 Murray. Given that there is strong downward pressure around this area where the WTI is trading, it is expected that the next few hours there will be a downward movement to 2/8 Murray located at 68.75 and until it can cover the GAP that it left at 66.39.</p>
<p>The medium-term outlook according to the 4-hour chart is still bearish and with a possibility of a fall in the short term to the psychological level of 70.00 and 62.50.</p>
<p>Given that the WTI is below the 200 EMA and below the 21 SMA, everything indicates that in the coming days crude oil could continue with the downward movement and could fall to the support of 2/8 Murray at 68.75 and hit the monthly low of 62.50.</p>
<p>The eagle indicator is approaching the extremely overbought zone. Crude is likely to make a technical correction below the downtrend channel and we could see a bearish move in the coming days.</p>
<p>Our trading plan is to sell below 71.88 with targets at 68.75 and at 66.40 (GAP) the eagle indicator supports our bearish strategy.</p>
<p><u>Support and Resistance Levels for December 10 - 13, 2021</u></p>
<p>Resistance (3) 75.00</p>
<p>Resistance (2) 74.34</p>
<p>Resistance (1) 72.48</p>
<p>----------------------------</p>
<p>Support (1) 69.54</p>
<p>Support (2) 68.49</p>
<p>Support (3) 66.60</p>
<p>***********************************************************</p>
<p><u>A trading tip for CRUDE OIL on</u> <u><u><u>December 10 - 13</u>, 2021</u></u></p>
<p>Sell below 71.88 (3/8) with take profit at 68.75 (2/8) and 66.40 (GAP), stop loss above 72.40.</p>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5938333445872059120.post-70275575145688952382021-12-10T06:08:00.001+08:002021-12-10T06:08:46.805+08:00Trading signal for EUR/JPY on December 09 - 10, 2021: buy above 128.00 (0/8)<p><img width="450" src="https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20211209/analytics61b21f8e40405.jpg" alt="analytics61b21f8e40405.jpg" /></p>
<p>On Wednesday EUR / JPY rose to 1/8 Murray around 129.00. Since the beginning of the Asian session, due to the weakness of the euro, the pair is retreating and is approaching the SMA of 21 and the strong support of 0/8 of Murray.</p>
<p>A return below 128.12 will turn into a negative signal for EUR / JPY and would enable the range rally between 128.90 (1/8) and 127.50 (-1/8). A technical bounce around -1/8 Murray would be an opportunity to buy, given that since 26 November this area has turned out to be strong monthly support.</p>
<p>If EUR/JPY manages to consolidate above the level of 128.00, this retracement will be considered a correction to gain momentum and thus, the pair be able to rise to the 200 EMA located at 129.4, to the top of the bearish channel, and to the psychological level of 130.00</p>
<p>Our forecast for the next few hours is a consolidation above 128.00 (21 SMA – 0/8). As long as EUR/JPY trades above this zone, we will have an opportunity to buy with the target at 128.90 (1/8) and 129.42 (200 EMA). If this level is broken, we could buy with targets at 130.00 (top bearish channel).</p>
<p>The market sentiment report for today, December 09, shows that there are 60.31% of operators who are buying the EUR/JPY pair. This data provided a bearish sign in the medium term. Since the pair is heavily oversold, a correctional movement to the resistance zone of 2/8 of a Murray is expected first. The eagle indicator is showing a bullish bias, moving above the trend channel.</p>
<p>The eagle indicator is showing a bullish bias, moving above the trend channel. The EUR/JPY pair could gain bullish strength in the next few days until reaching the resistance of 2/8 Murray around 129.68. If it manages to consolidate above 128.12 (0/8 of Murray), then it could gain strength and a trade volume to rise to 130.00 (psychological level).</p>
<p><u>Support and Resistance Levels for December 09 - 10, 2021</u></p>
<p>Resistance (3) 129.36</p>
<p>Resistance (2) 128.90</p>
<p>Resistance (1) 128.28</p>
<p>----------------------------</p>
<p>Support (1) 127.91</p>
<p>Support (2) 127.34</p>
<p>Support (3) 126.79</p>
<p>***********************************************************</p>
<p><u>A trading tip for EUR/JPY on</u> <u><u><u>December 09 - 10</u>, 2021</u></u></p>
<p>Buy above 128.00 (0/8) with take profit at 129.42 (200 EMA) and 130.00 (top bearish channel), stop loss below 127.55.</p>
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - <a href='https://www.instaforex.com/?x=BPDZ'>www.instaforex.com</a>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5938333445872059120.post-82226909028650058962021-12-10T05:08:00.001+08:002021-12-10T05:08:13.101+08:00Bitcoin Loses Hope To Reach High In December: How Evergrande Default Can Help BTC Resume Bullish Rally?<p>Bitcoin still looks weak and, judging by the movement of technical indicators, is more inclined to move towards the lower part of the current fluctuation area. The asset lacks a powerful upward momentum and fundamental prerequisites for growth. Investors are behaving with restraint towards BTC due to the gradual curtailment of the economic stimulus program in the U.S., which was the main catalyst for the growth of the coin's quotes in October-November 2021. However, an event has occurred on the world stage that can help Bitcoin resume its long-term upward movement.</p>
<p>We are talking about the official statement of the representatives of the developer Evergrande regarding the inability to fulfill debt obligations. The market reacted to the official statement of the company with restraint, since the main reaction of investors to the event was played back in November. Despite this, many experts are already predicting the catastrophic consequences of the bankruptcy of the developer with a $300 billion debt. Among the endless stream of apocalyptic assumptions about the future of the Chinese economy, the most interesting for me is the thesis about the beginning of a new debt crisis.</p>
<p>If you dive into the history of the recent past, you can see a pattern that Bitcoin sets a new historical record whenever the crisis in China reaches its peak. I assume that Evergrande's debt will be restructured and partially repaid with the help of state aid and the government bond market. However, payments of even small amounts on such a massive debt will definitely affect the global economy, and advanced states will also not avoid financial participation in the repayment of obligations.</p>
<p>All this will cause a global surge in inflation and excitement among investors of classic financial instruments. With this in mind, I expect an increase in interest in high-risk assets.</p>
<p><img width="450" src="https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20211209/analytics61b21ba25d05a.jpg" alt="analytics61b21ba25d05a.jpg" /></p>
<p>Given the correlation between Bitcoin rallies and periods of exacerbation of inflation, I assume that in the long term, repayment of the developer's debt will be the catalyst for a new bullish rally. Moreover, I expect a significant expansion of the current institutional audience of cryptocurrencies and the involvement of more public and private pension funds.</p>
<p>In 2021, we should not expect a significant increase in the value of the asset, but in 2022 the coin can start with the renewal of the ATH, due to the launch of bankruptcy proceedings or debt restructuring. It is also important to note that if a spot ETF for BTC is adopted at the beginning of 2022, then we can expect a new maximum to be set at the end of 2022 at the level of $150k-$200k.</p>
<p>As of 11:00 UTC, the main cryptocurrency continues to trade in the range of $40k-$50k. At the same time, technical indicators indicate pressure from sellers. The MACD is moving sideways on a flat, and the stochastic has formed a bearish intersection and continues to fall. By the movement of metrics, you can see that the price tends to the lower boundary of the area, which runs around $42k.</p>
<p>The candle analysis also indicates a decline in the price: the reaction of bulls to the impulse drop was extremely weak. This is evidenced by the uncertain bullish candles formed after the fall. At the same time, the pulse candle of the price drop has a long lower wick, which indicates a high probability of a repeated retest of the local minimum. With this in mind, I believe that before a full-fledged attempt to go beyond the $40k-$50k range, BTC/USD quotes will once again fall below $45k.</p>
<p><img width="450" src="https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20211209/analytics61b21ba5cb0e3.jpg" alt="analytics61b21ba5cb0e3.jpg" /></p>
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - <a href='https://www.instaforex.com/?x=BPDZ'>www.instaforex.com</a>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5938333445872059120.post-11752189263706463662021-12-10T04:08:00.001+08:002021-12-10T04:08:07.384+08:00Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for December 09, 2021<p><img width="450" src="https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20211209/analytics61b2183540be2.jpg" alt="analytics61b2183540be2.jpg" /></p>
Overview :
<p>The GBP/USD pair continues to move downwards from the level of 1.3320. Yesterday, the pair dropped from the level of 1.3320 (this level of 1.3320 coincides with the R1, 23.6% of Fibonacci retracement levels - (the weekly pivot point)) to the bottom around 1.3160.</p>
<p>Today, the first resistance level is seen at 1.3320 followed by 1.3417, while daily support 1 is found at 1.3061. Also, the level of 1.3160 represents a weekly pivot point for that it is acting as major resistance/support this week.</p>
<p>Amid the previous events, the pair is still in a downtrend, because the GBP/USD pair is trading in a bearish trend from the new resistance line of 1.3160 towards the first support level at 1.3060 in order to test it.</p>
<p>If the pair succeeds to pass through the level of 1.3060, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below the level of 1.3160 with thz target of 1.3060 and 1.2976 (last bearish wave).</p>
<p>However, if a breakout happens at the resistance level of 1.3320 , then this scenario may be invalidated.</p>
<p>Forecast :</p>
<p>If the pair fails to pass through the level of 1.3160, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below the strong resistance level of 1.3061-1.2976.</p>
<p>In this regard, sell deals are recommended lower than the 1.3160 level with the first target at 1.3061.</p>
<p>It is possible that the pair will turn downwards continuing the development of the bearish trend to the level 1.2976.</p>
<p>On the other hand, stop loss has always been in consideration thus it will be useful to set it above the last double top at the level of 1.3417 (notice that the major resistance today has set at 1.3417).</p>
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - <a href='https://www.instaforex.com/?x=BPDZ'>www.instaforex.com</a>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5938333445872059120.post-60936961226646685372021-12-10T03:08:00.001+08:002021-12-10T03:08:13.351+08:00Can three Pfizer and BioNTech vaccine shots beat Omicron?<p><img width="450" src="https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20211209/analytics61b218700e73e.jpg" alt="analytics61b218700e73e.jpg" /></p>
<p>On Wednesday, BioNTech and Pfizer executives announced that three doses of their coronavirus vaccine can neutralize the new Omicron variant. The companies claim that two doses of their vaccine resulted in a reduction of neutralizing antibodies during laboratory tests and the third dose of vaccination is required to restore protection against the Omicron variant.</p>
<p>According to the pharmaceutical companies, in samples of blood taken around a month after the third shot, the Omicron variant was neutralised about as effectively as two doses neutralised the original virus identified in China.</p>
<p>Although, this news was not sensational, since similar statements have been heard in the press before. Pfizer and BioNTech's findings are broadly in line with a preliminary study published by researchers at the Africa Health Research Institute in South Africa on Tuesday, which said Omicron could partially evade protection from two doses of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine and suggested a third shot might help fend off infection.</p>
<p>Notably, the news media continues to publish researchers' opinions about the poor efficacy of even three doses against the new strain. Laboratory analysis at University Hospital Frankfurt in Germany found the ability to mount an antibody response to Omicron in people who had three Pfizer shots. On Wednesday, virologist Sandra Ciesek of the University Hospital Frankfurt tweeted that those who received two doses of any coronavirus vaccine would have no immune protection against Omicron after six months. The virologist proved the results of the study, according to which the antibodies produced in the human body three months after the third dose protect against the new variant of the virus by only 25%. As for the Delta strain, the three doses were 95% effective.</p>
<p>The Omicron variant, first detected in southern Africa last month. A few days later, people in other countries, including several countries in Europe, were also infected with this new strain. The World Health Organization has designated the new strain B.1.1.529 with the Greek letter "omicron." According to WHO, the new strain has many mutations, some of which may well bypass vaccine protection. Moreover, it is believed that Omicron has an increased ability to spread.</p>
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - <a href='https://www.instaforex.com/?x=BPDZ'>www.instaforex.com</a>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5938333445872059120.post-12976417212989439402021-12-10T02:08:00.007+08:002021-12-10T02:08:40.681+08:00Analysis on NZDUSD for December 9, 2021.<p>NZDUSD remains in a bearish trend making lower lows and lower highs. Resistance at 0.6820 remains key for the short-term trend. The RSI has started providing us with bullish divergence signals. These signals are important warnings that imply downtrend will soon end.</p>
<p><img width="450" src="https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20211209/analytics61b21495dae1b.jpg" alt="analytics61b21495dae1b.jpg" /></p>
Blue line- resistance
<p>Red lines- Bullish divergence</p>
<p>NZDUSD is challenging the resistance trend line. As long as price is below 0.6820, NZDUSD will be vulnerable to more downside. The bullish RSI divergence signals provide a good chances of a reversal, but no confirmation has been given yet. A rejection at 0.6820-0.68 could lead to new lower lows towards 0.67. Currently bears remain in control of the trend, but there are increased chances we might see an important reversal.</p>
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - <a href='https://www.instaforex.com/?x=BPDZ'>www.instaforex.com</a>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5938333445872059120.post-10103636634344519932021-12-10T02:08:00.005+08:002021-12-10T02:08:38.644+08:00Gold remains vulnerable as long as price is below $1,790.<p>Gold price is trading below $1,780 but still above $1,761 recent low. There is no clear direction of the trend in Gold as price has stopped the decline at key Fibonacci retracement level, while the upside signals are there but not very strong. Bulls need to see more signs of strength in order to continue higher.</p>
<p><img width="450" src="https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20211209/analytics61b2136a3546f.jpg" alt="analytics61b2136a3546f.jpg" /></p>
<p>Red lines- bullish divergence</p>
<p>Gold price is bouncing higher after the low around $1,760. The RSI has provided us with important warnings for bears, as price was making new lows, the RSI did not. Thus forming a bullish divergence, This bullish divergence combined with the fact that Gold stopped its decline around the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, has made us turn slightly bullish expecting a trend reversal. So far we have not had a confirmation on the trend change. Resistance is at $1,792. Breaking it is important as price will be pushed even higher towards the next key short-term resistance of $1,815.</p>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5938333445872059120.post-45993350162233863652021-12-10T02:08:00.003+08:002021-12-10T02:08:35.945+08:00Trading signal for USD/JPY on December 09 - 10, 2021: sell below 113.58 (200 EMA)<p><img width="450" src="https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20211209/analytics61b2126d774e5.jpg" alt="analytics61b2126d774e5.jpg" /></p>
<p>USD / JPY is trading below the 200 EMA and below the 21 SMA, confirming a bearish outlook for the upcoming sessions. Around 114.00, the Japanese yen has formed a double top which means that there is a possibility of a downward movement for the next few days.</p>
<p>The 200 SMA has now turned into a resistance for the Japanese yen. As USD/JPY continues to trade below 113.58, it is expected to continue to strengthen and fall to 8/8 Murray around 112.50.</p>
<p>On the other hand, a consolidation and a sharp break above the +1/8 murray located at 114.06 would mean that the yen has resumed weakness and could go as high as 115.62.</p>
<p>Our forecast for the next few hours for the yen is a consolidation below 113.58 (200 EMA). As long as USD/JPY trades below this zone, we will have an opportunity to sell with the targets at 112.80 and 112.50 (8/8). If the pair rebound off 5/8 of Murray, we could buy with targets at 114.06 (+1/8).</p>
<p>The market sentiment report for today, December 09, shows that there are 62.12% of operators who are selling the USD/JPY pair. This data provided a bullish sign in the medium term. Since the pair is trading below 200 EMA, a correctional movement to the support zone of 8/8 of a Murray is expected first.</p>
<p>The eagle indicator is generating a bullish signal, moving below the trend channel. The Japanese Yen could gain bullish strength in the next few days until reaching the support of 8/8 Murray around 112.50. If it manages to consolidate below 113.58 (200 EMA), then it could gain strength and a trade volume to fall to 112.50.</p>
<p><u>Support and Resistance Levels for December 09 - 10, 2021</u></p>
<p>Resistance (3) 114.50</p>
<p>Resistance (2) 114.06</p>
<p>Resistance (1) 113.64</p>
<p>----------------------------</p>
<p>Support (1) 113.28</p>
<p>Support (2) 112.97</p>
<p>Support (3) 112.50</p>
<p>***********************************************************</p>
<p><u>A trading tip for USD/JPY on</u> <u><u><u>December 09 - 10</u>, 2021</u></u></p>
<p>Sell below above 113.58 (200 EMA) with take profit at 112.97 and 112.50 (8/8), stop loss above 113.95.</p>
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - <a href='https://www.instaforex.com/?x=BPDZ'>www.instaforex.com</a>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com