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Wave analysis of GBP/USD for September 16. Pound declines in response to US retail sales report


The wave counting for the GBP/USD currency pair still looks quite convincing and does not require any additions and adjustments at the moment. The assumed waves a, b, and c of the assumed upward trend segment are quite long, but the wave counting itself does not raise any questions. The third unsuccessful attempt to break through the 1.3873 mark, which is equal to 23.6% Fibonacci level, again led to the exit of quotes from the reached highs, but wave c still does not look fully completed. Thus, I expect the resumption of the construction of this wave and the increase in the quotes of the instrument. A successful attempt to break through the 23.6% Fibonacci level will indicate the readiness of the markets for new purchases, which is required for the pair at this time. Since this is not yet the case, I recommend resuming purchases of the pair after receiving confirmation that wave c continues its construction. The targets of wave c can be located between the peak of wave a and the level of 1.4239. I don't see any reasons to make any changes to the current wave pattern yet.

The exchange rate of the GBP/USD pair fell by 80 basis points on Thursday. There were no economic reports in the UK, so the markets followed only America and the retail trade report. This report turned out to be very optimistic, showing an increase in volumes by 0.7% and by 1.8% MoM, depending on fuel sales. These values are better than the markets expected to see, so the increase in dollar quotes is absolutely justified. But, as in the case of the EUR/USD, the decline in the quotes of the instrument began much earlier than this report. And in the situation with the pound sterling, we are talking about the fact that the markets have not been able to decide in which direction to move the instrument for more than 6 months.

Constant doubts are clearly visible in the picture below. Since the beginning of the year, the instrument has been moving only with the help of corrective structures and is located between 36th and 42nd figures. Thus, even the decline in quotes today, I cannot interpret as the construction of a new downward wave. The entire wave counting of the higher scale looks very complex due to the fact that there are no impulse waves on it. Perhaps after the Fed meeting next week, it will become more obvious to the markets what to do with the euro, the pound, and the dollar. But so far, both for the Euro/Dollar and for the Pound/Dollar, there are situations in which it is almost impossible to build long-term plans.

The wave pattern is now more or less clear. I still expect the construction of an upward wave, so at this time I suggest considering buying for each MACD signal "up" with targets located near the 1.4000 mark (the first target). The pair began the construction of a new internal corrective wave c. Thus, I recommend waiting for a successful attempt to break through the 23.6% Fibonacci level before resuming purchases.


The upward section of the trend, which began its construction a couple of months ago, has taken a rather ambiguous form and has already been completed. A new section of the trend can get an impulse form, its first wave has acquired a sufficiently extended form and exceeded the peaks of waves b and d. The chances of a new strong increase in quotes are growing. If the news background does not interfere, then the increase in quotes should continue.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company -