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Wave analysis of EUR/USD for September 29. Euro resumes downward trend formation


The wave counting of the 4-hour chart for the EUR/USD currency pair has undergone certain changes. After the quotes fell below the low of the previous wave, it became clear that the construction of the downward trend section has resumed. Consequently, it was necessary to make such adjustments that would involve a section of the a-b-c-d-e trend, which was formed from the very beginning of the year. I believe that this section can be considered wave A, and the subsequent increase can be considered wave B. If this is indeed the case, then the construction of the supposed wave C has now begun, which can take a very extended form, given the size of the wave A. At the same time, the entire section of the trend may again take a corrective, three-wave form A-B-C. Thus, the probability of a further decline in the instrument has increased dramatically, but a week ago this option of wave counting was absolutely unpopular.

There was no news for the euro on Wednesday. Even though ECB President Christine Lagarde, Fed Chair Jerome Powell, and US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen have already given their speeches several times since the beginning of the week, the information that the markets received could hardly contribute to the appreciation of the dollar. It is necessary to start with the fact that none of the said officials has reported anything important and new to the markets. Everyone has known for a long time that Powell considers the labor market to be under-restored. Lagarde has been assuring everyone for a long time that inflation will start to decline a little later and there is no need to panic. And Janet Yellen has once again asked Congress not to delay resolving the issue of the national debt limit. Thus, I personally do not believe that all these performances are the reason for the decline of the instrument in the last few days. And there was no other news background. There were no economic reports for the first three days of the week.

Tomorrow will be a logical continuation of the current week. Again - not a single economic report (if you do not take into account the unemployment rate in the European Union) and a bunch of speeches by representatives of the Fed. Jerome Powell and Janet Yellen will again give their speeches, as well as several FOMC members. However, note that at least 5-6 significant speeches have already taken place since the beginning of this week, but none of them affected the movement of the instrument. And the unemployment rate in the EU is unlikely to change so much that the markets will not ignore it.

Based on the analysis, I conclude that the construction of the downward wave C will continue for some time. Therefore, now I advise selling the instrument for each downward signal from the MACD, with targets located near the calculated marks of 1.1608 and 1.1540, which corresponds to 50.0% and 61.8% Fibonacci levels. The supposed wave C may turn out to be approximately the same size as wave A. At the same time, only one wave is visible inside this wave so far, and it should turn out to be much more complex.


The wave counting of the higher scale looks quite convincing. The decline in quotes continues and now the downward section of the trend, which originates on May 25, takes the form of a three-wave corrective structure A-B-C. Thus, the decline may continue for several more months until wave C is fully completed.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company -