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Wave analysis of EUR/USD for September 27. Speeches by Christine Lagarde, Janet Yellen, and Jerome Powell


The wave counting of the 4-hour chart for the EUR/USD currency pair remains the same and so far does without making adjustments. The assumed wave b has taken a longer form due to the decline over the past two weeks, and this is very bad for the current counting, since wave b has already turned out to be too deep compared to wave a. Therefore, the corrective wave b can go below the low wave a, and in this case, the entire downward trend section can resume its construction, which will significantly complicate the entire wave counting. So far, I consider this scenario as a backup, but the decline in the quotes of the instrument recently makes us treat it more carefully. If the quotes successfully break through the 0.0% Fibonacci level, then the entire wave picture will have to be revised. At the same time, I draw the readers' attention to another picture (below), where the nature of wave structures over the past six months is clearly visible. The pair moves only through corrective structures, so this time everything can be exactly like this.

There was no news background for the Euro/Dollar instrument on Monday. Several speeches from central bank presidents are scheduled within the week. However, Lagarde's speech on Monday showed that the markets already have all the necessary information without new speeches. The amplitude of the instrument's movement on Monday was only 20 basis points, which is not much. Although the European currency declined again.

However, this decrease did not lead to a change in the assumed wave b or the entire wave count. Thus, the markets need to continue to make every effort to restrain a further decline in quotes, which will inevitably lead to the need to make clarifications to the current wave count. I recommend paying attention to the speech of Christine Lagarde and Jerome Powell at the economic forum organized by the ECB on Tuesday. Perhaps there will be information that is still unknown to the markets. Janet Yellen will also give a speech on Tuesday, but there will be practically no economic reports during the day.

Based on the analysis, I conclude that the construction of the downward wave b may be completed soon. Therefore, I still expect an increase in the quotes of the instrument and advise buying with targets located near the 1.1965 and 1.2036 marks, which corresponds to 50.0% and 61.8% Fibonacci levels. As a confirmation of this assumption, we can wait for a successful attempt to break through the 23.6% Fibonacci level or an unsuccessful attempt to break through the 0.0% Fibonacci level. I do not advise buying without confirmation, since the downward wave can take an even more complex form, and then the entire wave counting will require adjustments.


The wave counting of the higher scale looks quite convincing. We see three three-wave sections of the trend, which are approximately the same in size. However, the last section of the trend quite unexpectedly took a more complex form, but it still ended in the same place as the previous three-wave section. A further decline in the quotes of the instrument may mean that the entire wave counting of the last months is transformed into a more complex downward section of the trend.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company -