The wave counting for the Pound/Dollar instrument still looks quite integral at this time. Even though the proposed wave b turned out to be too deep, it still does not violate the wave counting. The exit of quotes from the lows reached in recent days indicates that wave b may already be completed. Thus, the markets can still build a three-wave upward structure, although there is no question of an impulse structure now. It will be possible to talk about the five-wave impulse section of the trend no earlier than a successful attempt to break through the level of 1.4239, which is the peak of the previous upward trend section. But a successful attempt to break through the lows of the last waves b and e will indicate that the markets are going to continue to put pressure on the instrument, as a result of which it may continue to decline, and the entire wave counting of the downward section will require adjustments and additions. This scenario is possible, from my point of view, only if the dollar receives strong support from the news background. For example, this Friday.
The Pound/Dollar instrument moved on Wednesday as if doing a favor. Yesterday, the amplitude was 26 basis points, and the markets could not decide on the direction of movement. Today, the picture was about the same. Only the amplitude has decreased slightly. But the day has not yet ended, so there are still some chances of a stronger decline. However, on what basis can the instrument resume its decline if there are no news and economic reports at the moment? The same single report on orders for long-term goods in the United States caused a slight increase in demand for the dollar. And in the UK itself, there will be nothing interesting at all this week. Even the meeting of the G7 on Afghanistan ended in nothing. The leaders of the G7 countries discussed the problems associated with the evacuation of local residents from Kabul, but the timing when foreign troops will have to leave the capital of Afghanistan has not changed – on August 31.
At the moment, about 60,000 Afghans have already flown out of the Kabul airport, who have been cooperating with the Americans and other foreign militaries for the past 20 years, and now they fear for their lives, since the Taliban came to power, and the activities of foreign troops were aimed at deterring them. Thus, those who do not have time to leave the country before August 31, most likely, will not be able to do it later. Although the leaders of G7 are calling on the Taliban to evacuate everyone without hindrance.
The wave pattern is now more or less clear. I still expect the construction of an upward wave, so at this time I suggest considering buying the instrument for each MACD signal "up" with targets located near the 1.4000 mark (the first target). The instrument, presumably, has completed the construction of the downward wave b and is ready to increase.
The upward section of the trend, which began its construction a couple of months ago, has taken a rather ambiguous form and has already been completed. A new section of the trend can get an impulse form, its first wave has acquired a sufficiently extended form and exceeded the peaks of waves b and d. The chances of a new strong increase in quotes are growing. If the news background does not interfere, then the increase in quotes should continue soon.
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