Technical analysis and recommendations for USD/CHF dated March 29, 2021

It is time to turn your attention to another major currency pair, which is USD/CHF. As I have repeatedly noted in previous articles on this tool, the pair is quite interesting and technical, which we will try to see again today.



Like all other major currencies, the Swiss franc suffered losses against the US dollar, which amounted to 1.09%, during the last five-day trading session. At the same time, we see that the decline in the Swiss franc was quite intense, as indicated by a fairly large white candle, its long lower shadow, broken resistance of sellers at 0.9321 and 0.9375, overcoming the black 89 exponential moving average, as well as a confident closing of weekly trading above the strong technical level of 0.9375. It can be assumed that all of the above obstacles open the way for the pair to the most important psychological and technical level of 0.9500. In other words, with a high degree of probability, we can expect the pair to continue the upward scenario. If we go back to the last weekly candle, it is not the growth itself that is indicative, but how the USD/CHF bulls were able to reverse the situation and raise the rate above 0.9400 after falling to 0.9220, namely, to finish trading on March 22-26 at 0.9390, while showing the maximum values at 0.9416. In general, the technical picture on the weekly timeframe indicates the reluctance of the market to decline, which is most likely a signal for the growth of the pair. However, the mark of 0.9400 has remained unconquered so far, and this may become a problem.



But on the daily chart, we see a completely different picture. On the last day of trading last week, a reversal model of the candle analysis "Doji Star" appeared. A characteristic point is a fact that this model appeared at the very end of the upward movement, and the closing price of the candle was below the strong and iconic level of 0.9400. These factors certainly increase the chances of market participants working out this model, which means that we can expect a decline in the quote. But what about the conclusion about further growth, made based on the analysis of the weekly chart? Usually, with such inconsistencies, priority is given to the older period, because the signals on it are stronger than on smaller timeframes.

However, as you know, there are exceptions to each rule, so the downward scenario, which is possible due to the appearance of the circled daily candle for March 26, should not be rejected in any case. It is quite logical to assume an initial pullback down, after which USD/CHF will be able to find support and turn in the north direction. Naturally, with such an uncertain technical picture, the data on the US labor market, which will be published this Friday, can play a role, and a very significant one. In the meantime, I recommend buying after corrective pullbacks in the price zones of 0.9380-0.9370, and at lower prices, look for purchases after a decline in the area of 0.9340-0.9320. Sales will become relevant if a bearish reversal pattern or patterns appear on smaller timeframes after the rise to the price zone of 0.9385-0.9400. With both options of positioning, I do not recommend setting large goals, but limiting yourself to 30-40 points of profit, and then leaving the market.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company -