GBP/USD. February 17. COT report. Will UK inflation support the pound?



According to the hourly chart, the quotes of the GBP/USD pair growth performed a fall to the lower border of the upward trend corridor. The rebound from it worked in favor of the British currency and the resumption of the growth process in the direction of the level of 1.3976. However, at the moment, the pair's quotes maintain the probability of closing under the corridor, which will allow traders to count on the continuation of the fall in the direction of the level of 1.3820. However, it should be noted that the British pound has grown significantly in recent weeks and months. Given the fact that Boris Johnson introduced a "lockdown" twice this winter in the UK, the British economy in the fourth quarter even grew by 1%, without suffering any losses. Thus, the economy has shown an amazing resistance to the winter crisis and the "lockdown". But to continue the growth process, new information is also needed, which will fuel the high demand for the British. In the first two days of this week, there was almost no news or reports on the economic plan. But this morning in Britain, the consumer price index will be released, which is considered quite important. Forecasts speak in favor of a decrease in inflation in January, which may negatively affect the rate of the British dollar. However, I would also like to remind you that not all reports and economic news are taken into account by traders. If the value of the report is the same as the value for December or the forecast (a slight slowdown to 0.4%-0.5%), then traders may well ignore this report. Then today, until the evening, everything will depend on the mood of traders and the graphical picture. In the evening, the Fed minutes will be released, which will draw a line under the last meeting of the regulator and organize all the information. Traders will once again be able to form a clear vision of what the regulator and its chairman, Jerome Powell, think about monetary policy.



On the 4-hour chart, the GBP/USD pair, after rebounding from the level of 1.3850, performed a small drop. However, after the formation of a bullish divergence in the CCI indicator, it resumed the growth process in the direction of the corrective level of 161.8% (1.3979). The upward trend line keeps the current mood of traders "bullish". The rebound of quotes from the level of 1.3850 may work in favor of resuming the growth process.

GBP/USD – Daily.


On the daily chart, the pair's quotes made a consolidation above the corrective level of 100.0% (1.3513), which still allows us to count on continued growth in the direction of the Fibo level of 127.2% (1.4084).

GBP/USD – Weekly.


On the weekly chart, the pound/dollar pair completed a close over the second downward trend line. Thus, the chances of long-term growth of the pound are significantly increased.

Overview of fundamentals:

On Tuesday, the US and UK calendars were completely blank, so there was no background information on that day.

News calendar for the United States and the United Kingdom:

UK - consumer price index (07:00 GMT).

US - retail trade volume change (13:30 GMT).

US - change in industrial production (14:15 GMT).

On February 17, the calendars of economic events in the United Kingdom and the United States contain quite interesting reports. Each of them is important in its way and can affect the overall picture.

COT (Commitments of Traders) report:


The latest COT report of February 9 on the British pound was quite interesting and noteworthy. In recent weeks, speculators have not made serious steps in the direction of strengthening the "bullish" mood. However, all this time, the pound was still growing. The latest COT report showed an increase in the number of long contracts focused on the hands of the "Non-commercial" category of traders by 6,465 units. At the same time, speculators got rid of 4,660 short contracts. Thus, the Briton grew even without increasing long contracts from speculators. Now, it has an even greater chance of continuing growth.

Forecast for GBP/USD and recommendations for traders:

It is recommended to buy the British dollar in case of a rebound from the level of 1.3850 on the 4-hour chart with a target of 1.3976. It is recommended to sell the pound sterling at the close under the trend corridor on the hourly chart with the targets of 1.3820 and 1.3744.


"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.

"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy foreign currency, not for speculative profit, but to support current activities or export-import operations.

"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company -