Forecast for EUR/USD on February 18, 2021


The euro fell 66 points yesterday on the release of strong inflation and retail sales data in the US. The overall retail sales in January rose by 5.3% versus 1.1% expected, the producer price index jumped from 0.8% y/y to 1.7% y/y. At this rate, the current general inflation rate of 1.4% may become 2.3% in half a year, which will force the Federal Reserve to revise its monetary policy faster than the market currently believes. Industrial production also showed good growth in January - growth by 0.9% against the forecast of 0.4%.


A downward trend has settled on the daily chart - the price is below both indicator lines, the Marlin oscillator has quite reliably penetrated the bears' area. But today can still be a calm, a correction and consolidation after yesterday's breakthrough. The 1.1870-1.1915 range is still the nearest target for the euro.


The price lingered in the accumulation range on February 8th (gray area) on the 4-hour chart. This is a very convenient place for a new consolidation, but now for a decline. If the price moves below the signal level of 1.2023 (yesterday's low), this will be a signal to continue the downward movement.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company -