Forecast for EUR/USD on April 3, 2020

EUR/USD

Weekly data on applications for unemployment benefits in the United States was published on Thursday. The data from the Ministry of Labor was a failure: 6,648 million against the forecast of 3,600 million and 3,307 million a week earlier, revised up from 3,283 million. Markets, however, calmly accepted such indicators – on the one hand, investors have already acquired immunity and understanding of employment data, on the other hand, the US trade balance for February showed an improvement from -45.5 billion dollars to -39.9 billion – the best indicator since October 2015. On the third hand, any bad data only spurs investors' flight from risk and increases demand for dollars. In this light, the dollar will continue to strengthen today, no matter how the unemployment data comes out; conditionally good indicators will show the best state of the US economy during the G7 pandemic, bad data will also support the demand for a better currency. The forecast for Non-Farm Employment Change is -100,000, unemployment is projected to grow from 3.5% to 3.8%.

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The euro's fall from yesterday reached the Fibonacci level of 23.6% (daily chart). The next goal at 0.0625 opens – support for the embedded price channel line.

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The price struggles with the support of the MACD line on the four-hour chart. Success, that is, when the price leaves the area below yesterday's low of 1.0821, then becomes a signal to open short positions. S/L above 1.0870.

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