Forecast for EUR/USD on April 2, 2020

EUR/USD

Recent and weak risk appetites continue to decline in the markets; the S&P 500 lost 4.41% yesterday, the FTSE100 -3.83%, the EuroStoxx50 -3.83%, and the Nikkei 225 is losing around 0.90% this morning. Government bond yields of a number of the G7 countries grow (they are sold, their value falls and the yield increases proportionally, and this is Germany ), but the US yields (and the UK) are falling, they are actively being bought. By this morning, the yield on 5-year US bonds had fallen from 0.726% on Monday to 0.582%. The US national debt as of March 31 was 23.654. 178 trillion. It increased by $284 billion over the month and $127 billion over the week. Dollar liquidity is returning to the US. In the near future, especially after the quarantine is lifted, it will not be enough, which will further increase the demand for the US currency. Against the background of uncertainty with the pandemic and fears, even gold is not growing, the decline from Monday was 2.53%, which indirectly adds to the picture of dollar dominance. At the same time, we note that the risk leaves the markets even with relatively good data on the US – only 27,000 jobs were lost in the US private sector in March, against the forecast of -150 thousand, which in turn can have a positive impact on tomorrow's Nonfarms data, which is forecast in the area of -100,000.

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On the daily scale chart, the euro overcame the support of the embedded price channel line and the 38.2% Fibonacci level. The Marlin oscillator moved into the downward zone. The euro is aiming for the price channel line around 1.0625.

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On the four-hour chart, the MACD line (1.0855) acts as an intermediate target. Consolidating it will provide the euro bears with new strength.

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