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Around 15 to 70 million people can die from the coronavirus. Three scenarios have been developed for the global economy

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The Chinese COVID-2019 pneumonia virus has already captured more than 100 countries around the world. More than 130,000 people are infected and about 5,000 have died. However, scientists and analysts around the world warn that this may only be the beginning. The new virus differs from the others in that it spreads very easily. Scientists suspect that the virus can survive even outside the human body, for example, on ordinary surfaces made of plastic, iron and others that a person touches. Moreover, it may take up to two weeks before a person feels unwell and goes to a doctor or self-isolates at home. How many people can it infect in two weeks? And how many people from this number who are already infected will transmit the virus, in turn, to other people, also without knowing that they are carriers of the virus?

Australian scientists have tried to model the picture of the spread of the virus and calculate possible losses. According to the most conservative estimates, the CODID-2019 virus will take the lives of about 15 million people. It is difficult to say how accurate and correct these calculations are if the death rate is no more than 5%, but if the virus really continues to spread with such ease, these figures will no longer seem improbable. The losses of the world economy in this case will exceed two trillion dollars. This variant was modeled on the "Hong Kong flu" of 1968-1969, which killed a million people. However, scientists also report that a more severe scenario is possible, in which more than 70 million people will die, and it will spread like the "Spanish flu" in the 20s of the previous century. If you can't find a vaccine for this virus (meaning in the near future) and you have to fight it with traditional medicines, but you can't prevent the disease in any way, then sooner or later everyone on the planet can get infected, despite the quarantines imposed in many countries and the termination of air traffic. In this case, the virus can become an annual phenomenon that worsens during certain periods of the year. Then the epidemic can take the lives of 15 million people every year. The damage to the global economy will amount to tens of trillions of dollars. Also, Australian scientists note that it is too late to close the borders, since the virus has already spread across the planet.

Meanwhile, economists and analysts are also developing possible scenarios for the consequences for the global economy. According to experts, there are three possible options: a rapid economic recovery based on a successful outcome of the fight against the virus, a global economic slowdown and further spread of the virus, and a global recession.

Under the first scenario, global economic growth is expected to fall to about 2% this year. The largest economies, the US and China, will recover fully in the second quarter. However, it is noted that this option is too optimistic and implies a seasonal spread of the virus. It is also assumed that the population will remain economically active, and the measures taken by the governments of the countries will be as effective as in China.

In the second scenario, it is also assumed that the virus is seasonal but it more realistically reflects the inequality of opportunities in many countries. Therefore, the fight against coronavirus in some countries (developed) will be successful, in others (less developed) – not. In this way, some countries will be able to control the epidemic, while others will not, and the spread of the virus will continue. In this case, the growth rate of world GDP will be reduced by half, but a recession will still be avoided. Small and medium-sized businesses are expected to suffer the most.

In the last, third, variant, it is assumed that the virus is not seasonal, which means that at any time of the year it will spread freely and easily. In this case, it will spread around the world, including hotter and colder countries. In this case, the growth of the world economy may be reduced to -1.5%. This is already a recession. The entire year 2020 will be fully dedicated to the fight against the new disease.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com