EUR/USD
At the peak of growth on Thursday, the euro gained 50 points, but with the release of good US economic indicators it returned to its original position. According to the ADP private version, 195 thousand jobs were created in August against the forecast of 148 thousand, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI increased from 53.7 to 56.4, while the volume of factory orders in the US added 1.4% against an expectation of 1.0%.
On the daily chart, the upper shadow of yesterday's candle reached the first target at the Fibonacci level of 123.6%, while touching the balance indicator line. The Marlin oscillator has slowed down and is still in the zone of negative numbers. This situation fully admits that after the price consolidates below the signal level of 1.1027 (August 1 low), the euro will fall to the Fibonacci level of 138.2% at the price of 1.0986, after which a new downward movement will develop. Convergence on the Marlin oscillator will run out of steam.
On the four-hour chart, the closest price support is the MACD line (1.1012). Accordingly, consolidating the price under 1.1027 implies a price drop below 1.1012.
Important US employment data will be released today. It is likely to set a further short-term direction for the euro. The forecast for new places in the non-agricultural sector for August is 163-164 thousand - at the level of the previous month. In general, the outlook is positive, but as it often happens, there could be surprises. The price exit above 1.1073 with weak data will open a second wind to buyers with the target of 1.1158 - to the point of coincidence of the Fibonacci level of 110.0%, the price channel line and the MACD line on the daily chart.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com