Forecast for EUR/USD on July 8, 2019


As we expected last week, data on new jobs in the non-agricultural sector (Nonfarm Payrolls) were higher than the forecast - 224 thousand versus 162 thousand. Were the data intentionally overestimated? By circumstantial evidence - yes; applications for unemployment benefits increased in the last 5 weeks, in the ADP estimate (published on Wednesday) 102 thousand jobs were created in the non-agricultural sector compared to the forecast of 140 thousand, the ISM employment index was lowered from 58.1 to 55.0, in the private sector, according to ADP, in June 102 thousand jobs were created against the forecast of 140 thousand. Taking into account these data, even the Nonfarm forecast of 162 thousand looks very optimistic now. The released data will likely be revised downwards later on, but the task is completed - investors lowered their expectations for rate cuts to two solid lows - in July and in September. The euro fell by 58 points. Tomorrow Jerome Powell, James Bullard, Randal Quarles, Rafael Bostic will speak and report on the "correct" understanding of the current economic situation.


On the daily chart, the decline stopped at the Fibonacci level of 100.0% and on the line of the price channel. The price went below the indicator lines of balance and MACD, the Marlin oscillator in the declining trend zone. On the support, the price may be delayed, we do not expect a strong movement for today, but later, with overcoming Friday's low, we expect a decline to the Fibonacci level 110.0% at a price of 1.1155. Next is the goal 1.1075 - Fibonacci level of 1.1075.


On the four-hour chart on the Marlin oscillator, the prerequisites for the formation of convergence are created, which, if not develop into a deep correction, is able to keep the price from falling today.

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