China's economy is surprising but it's too early to talk about recovery

Headline for the World Markets and currencies is about the Chinese economy which becomes more accurate as it was unexpectedly successful in the first quarter Growth in a specific period amounted to 6.4 percent, despite the fact that a slowdown was expected. Industrial production jumped sharply, and consumer demand shows signs of improvement. However, it is too early to call what is happening as a sustainable trend. Many still expect "full recovery" only in the second half of 2019. More positive data is needed to talk about a full recovery. In addition, stronger than expected data is related to some extent to the large-scale stimulus.

Stock markets and most currencies rose after data was published. Quarterly growth was supported by a sharp jump in industrial production, which grew by 8.5 percent year-on-year in March. There is every reason to believe that growth will remain stable here. Some experts explain the current growth in exports by seasonal factors but most likely it will continue in the second quarter. In spite of this, according to the poll by Reuters, analysts expect that China's growth this year will still slow to a nearly 30-year low of 6.2 percent, as weak demand at home and abroad. Also, the trade war continues to put pressure despite government support measures.

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