Global macro overview for 05/06/2018

The global investors got acquainted overnight with the data on the growth of the Australian economy. Both on a quarterly and annual basis, the indicator disappointed market expectations. GDP growth was expected at 3.3% y / y, the final reading was 2.8% (previously 3.4%). In quarterly terms, the increase was 0.3% with expectations at 0.6% (previously 0.9%).

Weak data, however, will not affect the RBA's activities. The central bank's management is currently on holiday, the next meeting will take place only in February. However, we can expect a less optimistic tone from the representatives of the institutions.

According to Westpac, Australia's economy has lost its growth momentum. The blame for this is that of degrading real estate and consumer spending. Investments in enterprises have also dropped, especially in mining. Australia is still strong in terms of employment, but wage growth is low. Household savings remain low, and the costs of borrowing are gradually increasing.

Let's now take a look at the AUD/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. Since the publication of data, AUD/USD has dropped by about 50 pips and tested the local technical support at the level of 0.7283 again. Any breakout below this level will only accelerate the losses towards the next level of support o.7275 and if this one is lost, then the next target for bears is way lower, at the level of 0.7200. Weak and negative momentum supports the short-term bearish outlook.


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