Global macro overview for 22/11/2018

The USD gave away some of the profits after the Tuesday's rally, which confirms that the turmoil had a lot of ordering the position before the long weekend. However, yesterday's rebound on the Wall Street half-whistle does not suggest that we can easily shake off the bleak climate and dilemmas that suppress the appetite for risk.

It seems, however, that a deeper discussion about the prospects of global recovery, trade wars and threats due to restrictive Fed policy investors will leave each other for next week, and by then we will probably drift to the side at low revolutions. Although Christmas break refers only to the US, a gentleman's agreement between New York and London, the financial center of the Old Continent, affects the reduced activity on European stock exchanges. In the last 8 years, the average daily turnover in Black Friday in the blue chips segment in London and Frankfurt was on average 19-24% below the average for the whole of November. Similar forecasts pertain to the currency market, where it is already visible that trade in EUR / USD (at 1.14) and USD / JPY (113) will be shortened.

Let's now take a look at the USD/JPY technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market has broken above the level of 113.03 and made a new high above the technical resistance at the level of 113.18. Ths high is just below the next Fibonacci retracement at the level of 113.25. Despite the up move, the short-term trend remains bearish and after this correction is over, the down trend should resume. The first target is seen at the level of 112.65 and then at 112.30.

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