Fundamental Analysis of AUD/USD for November 28, 2018

AUD/USD has been quite volatile and indecisive amid impulsive bearish pressure. The price has been rejected off the 0.7300 area recently. Ahead of the universally expected rate hike in the US in the nearest days, USD is likely to gain momentum over AUD despite some weak reports from the US.

AUD found support from upbeat economic reports, especially the employment report which helped the currency to sustain consistent bullish pressure over USD earlier. Today Australia's Construction Works Done report was published with a decrease to -2.8% from the previous value of 1.8% which was expected to be at 0.9% that affected AUD gains today, leading to impulsive bullish rejection in back to back daily candles. Tomorrow Australia's Private Capital Expenditure report is going to be published which is expected to increase to 1.1% from the previous negative value of -2.5%.

On the USD side, investors are concerned about escalation of the trade war tensions. Besides, some Fed officials softened rhetoric about a pace of further monetary tightening. They worry that too fast tightening might hinder economic growth in the US. Nevertheless, USD has managed to gain consistent momentum with good sustainability. Today, US Prelim GDP report was published unchanged at 3.5%, undershooting the forecast for 3.6% expansion. Goods Trade Balance decreased to -77.2B from the previous figure of decreased to -76.3B which was expected to be at -76.7B, Prelim GDP Index report was unchanged at 1.7% as expected, and Prelim Wholesale Inventories rose to 0.7% from the previous value of 0.4% which was expected to be at 0.5%. Moreover, New Home Sales decreased to 544k from the previous figure of 597k which was expected to be at 583k and Richmond Manufacturing Index decreased to 14 from the previous figure of 15 which was expected to increase to 16.

Meanwhile, AUD is still quite strong against USD despite the strong likelihod of the rate hike. Any positive report from Australia in the coming days may have a certain impact on AUD gains. Otherwise, the bearish pressure may increase further in the future.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing above the support area of 0.7150-0.7200 area while being supported by the dynamic level of 20 EMA in the process. On the back of recently emerging bearish divergence, the price is expected to push lower in case of a daily close below 0.7150. In the alternative scenairo, as the price remains above the 0.7150 area, the bullish bias may continue to push the price higher in the future.

SUPPORT: 0.7150, 0.7200

RESISTANCE: 0.7300, 0.7450

BIAS: BEARISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

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