Global macro overview for 04/10/2018

British Prime Minister, Theresa May, will meet representatives of the European Union for a joint dinner on October 17. According to commentators, it is then that the finalization of the Brexit agreement will be finalized, which could be signed by both parties a month later.

The May administration would like to ratify the Secession Agreement two weeks after its signature. This would mean that the British Parliament would have really little time to make any amendments to the agreement, which turned out to be more complicated than it seemed.

After a series of failures and crises, it seems that both sides have finally found a common language and agreement on the UK leaving the European Union will finally be signed. Since the memorable referendum in June 2016, we have had a situation on several occasions in which it seemed that both sides would not want to compromise. One of the last risk factors of the border issue was with remaining Ireland in the Union.

May must fight with both Brexit supporters and opponents. The former accuse the prime minister of the fact that the terms of secession established by her administration are unacceptable. Euro-enthusiasts, in turn, do not want to hear about Brexit and demand a second referendum on this matter.

The biggest threat to May is the possibility of not being supported by her own political party. In theory, the opposition of just seven Tories could have put an end to the work on the contract. Jacob Rees-Mogg, who leads the party's European Research Group, warns that he is able to convince even 80 parliamentarians that they will reject the proposals of the May administration.

Let's now take a look at the GBP/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market has hit the 38% Fibo retracement of th previous swing down at the level of 1.3034, but the bears are now pushing the price back down again. The nearest support is seen at the level of 1.2977 and 1.2964, but the momentum is still below its fifty level, so the move down is still more probable.


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