Global macro overview for 26/09/2018

A series of data from New Zealand was published overnight. The Trade Balance data in August was NZD 1.484 billion versus expectations of NZD 930 million. The previous reading from 143 to 196 million NZD has also been revised. On a yearly basis, the data also does not look good. The previous deficit read-out was revised from NZD 4.44bn to NZD 4.5bn, the current result was NZD 4.81bn. A country's trade balance reflects the difference between exports and imports of goods and services. The trade balance is one of the biggest components of the Balance of Payment, giving valuable insight into pressures on the country's currency. The reaction of the New Zealand dollar was falling, but at the peak of the crisis it was barely 10 pips and was quickly negated.

A little bit later, the ANZ published the results of a business confidence survey in New Zealand. The value of the index bounced from the ten-year minimum and increased from -50.3 points to -38.3 points. The report shows that the willingness to invest is still falling, but the need to increase employment is increasing.

Let's now take a look at the NZD/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. Despite the mixed message coming from the data, NZDUSD fired upwards by more than 30 pips and denied the majority of declines from the last two days. Nevertheless, the price is still trapped inside of the range between the levels of 0.6631 - 0.6696, just below the swing high at 0.6724. The momentum is still positive, but it is barely above its fifty level. If the support at the level of 0.66321 is violated, the next target for bears is seen at the level of 0.6591.


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