Forecast for EUR / USD as of September 5, 2018


On Tuesday, for the US dollar, there were all the conditions for strengthening, but investors were focused on emerging markets. The yield on Argentinean 4-year government bonds soared from 26.97% to 31.24% in one day, the peso rate fell from 38.07 to $ 38.97 peso for a dollar. In Brazil, the yield on 5-year securities increased from 11.55% to 11.67%, in Venezuela for 5-year government bonds, yield increased from 74.95% to 76.69%, in Egyptian similar securities, the yield is 18.43% . In the Greek 10-year period, it increased from 4.43% to 4.56%, according to Indian 10-years from 7.99% to 8.06%, from Indonesian from 8.21% to 8.34%, according to Russian 8.69% to 8.80%. This all happened, as you can see, with the release of American investors to the market after the holiday on Monday.

And in the US, the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector from ISM increased from 58.1 to 61.3 in August, while the decrease was expected to reach 57.6. In Spain, the number of unemployed increased by 47 thousand against the forecast of 35 thousand.

Euro fell in the moment by 92 points, exactly worked out the support of the trend line of the price channel and jumped from it. At the moment, the price is on the balance line of the daily timeframe. At H4, the price is still under the indicator lines of the balance and the trend Kruzenshtern, but the signal line of the oscillator Marlin came out of the descending channel and shows the intention to go to the positive zone.


We do not think that the mismatch of the dollar (through its consideration of the euro) with panic in emerging markets will be somehow long. Probably, now there are major changes in the positions of investors, but they are not very fast. Technically, however, the price has worked out the support and can return to the range of 1.1750-1.1822. If, of course, it can overcome the resistance of the Krusenstern trend line on the four-hour chart (1.1652).


If this does not happen, an attempt may be made to fix the price at yesterday's low. In general, the market remains completely uncertain about the near future. Yesterday's events warn that the market (euro) can be bought back even against strong Friday labor data in the US.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company -