Global macro overview for 29/08/2018

The price of WTI crude oil increased by almost $6 recently, but after the weekend, despite significant events like NAFA agreement news, the price still oscillates around Monday's open level.

The latest report on oil production among OPEC countries is very interesting to read. It turns out that the cartel is systematically approaching the intended goal, implementing in July 109% of the plan to reduce production. In June, it was 120%, while it was a result caused by the severe crisis in Venezuela and the stoppage of production in Libya. The fact is, however, that the countries participating in the agreement significantly increased their production.

On Monday, a coalition led by Saudi Arabia carried out strong bombing raids on Huti rebel positions in the northern part of Yemen. The attack was in a way a response to the intensified attacks supported by Iran Huti. Markets did not really care about this event, but it has its justification. The area of Bab el-Mandab has been mentioned in various financial media many times: Saudi Arabia at the end of July decided to suspend transports on this route for a few days, precisely because of the Huti attack on two oil tankers. Regardless if it was only a form of pressure on the Western countries to refrain from cooperation with Iran or actual fears of losing the oil transports.

Let's now take a look at the Crude Oil technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market has made a lower low at the level of 69.32, but the price is still trading above the trend line support and as long as it stays above, the short-term outlook remains bullish. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of 68.13 and then at 67.59. Please notice the overbought market conditions and practically neutral momentum at the time of writing the article.

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