Global macro overview for 12/06/2018

For the second month in a row, data from the British job market are coming out as expected. Although the wage growth rate dropped to 2.8% year-on-year basis, which is slightly below the previous reading and median forecasts of 2.9% ), it is still a solid result close to several-year records dynamics. Moreover, the Claimant Count Change data (data on those individuals who are out of work and who are claiming some sort of unemployment benefit) dropped more than expected as well (-7.7k vs. 11.0k expected, 28k prior). The market could be afraid of weaker data after yesterday's industry data. Maybe other sectors of the economy are doing so slowly, but the labor market with unemployment at 4.2% it is not the worry of the Bank of England.

The market participants remain focused on today's Brexit votes and tomorrow's reading of inflation. If these figures fall out decently, the August hike will remain in the game (currently its chance is estimated at 54%). This move of BoE would likely result in a broad appreciation of the Pound across the board.

Let's now take a look at the GBP/USD technical picture on the H4 time frame. After the data release, the pair remains above the level of 1.3399 which is the major intraday technical support for the bulls. The next target for bulls is seen at the level of 1.3422 and then 1.3451. On the other hand, if the bulls will lose control over the market, then the intraday decline might be quite a several as the next important technical support is seen at the level of 1.3354 - 1.3340 zone.


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