Global macro overview for 04/05/2018

The March reading of retail sales from Eurozone is a disappointment. Despite expectations for a seasonal sales jump by 0.5%, official figures show an increase of only 0.1%. Revision of February data from 0.1% up to 0.3% it is a mild consolation. Similarly to other parts of Europe, lower temperatures in March delayed the sale of spring clothing collections, which affected the total sales volume.

It might turn out the solid economic growth the global investors have been observing during the recent year has now been terminated as the last months data are indicating a visible slowdown. The recent PMI Services and Manufacturing data from the Eurozone were bararly in line with expectations with big regional differences. All this recent eceonomic activity does not justyfiy the ECB interest rate hike decision yet as well.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market quietly tolerates a weak reading and remains close to 1.1960. The market is limiting activity, waiting for a report from the US labor market. The nearest support is the 61% Fibo at the level of 1.1935 and the nearest technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.2000 and 1.2055. Please notice extremely oversold market conditions.

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