Global macro overview for 03/05/2018

Leaving unchanged monetary policy at the May meeting was a general market scenario, the probability of which far outweighed others. There was no press conference planned. Investors only have to rely on the published statement of the Fed's monetary policy.

As usual, a few moments after the publication of the latest statement, we had an overview of what has changed compared to the last Fed publication. The first noticeable change is the emphasis on employment growth in recent months. The Reserve members also underline a strong rise in investment and inflation, which is approaching 2%. Invariably, the Committee points to moderate economic growth and points to a balanced risk division for the US economy. In today's statement, there was also no statement that economic forecasts in the past months have improved. Probably this deficiency is responsible for the initial declines in the valuation of the US dollar after the publication of FOMC decision.

Let's now take a look at the US Dollar Index technical picture at the H4 time frame. A hawkish announcement regarding the level of inflation was not enough for bulls and there are many indications that the missing sentence about economic forecasts pushes the dollar down despite the new marginal high at the level of 92.83. The immediate support is seen at the level of 92.21, but any breakout below this level would open the road towards the next technical support at the level of 92.00. This scenario is being supported by the extremely overbought market conditions and multi-timeframe bearish divergence between the price and the momentum oscillators.

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