Trading plan for 19/04/2018

The main overnight theme was data from Australia and New Zealand, in both cases weak, although the risk appetite was AUD and NZD. The stock market continues to rise on the wave of good quarterly results and generally positive sentiment. Japanese Nikkei225 grows 0.2% and Chinese Shanghai Composite gains 0.9%. On the commodity market, crude oil improves peaks unseen since the end of 2014 thanks to data on US inventory declines and Saudi Arabia's efforts to maintain high prices by limiting output. WTI is about $ 69.

On Thursday 19th of April, the event calendar is light in important data releases, but the market participants should keep an eye on Retail Sales data from the UK, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index and Unemployment Claims data from the US and ADP Non-Farm Employment Change data from Canada.

AUD/USD analysis for 19/04/2018:

The quarterly CPI reading from New Zealand fell above forecasts at 0.5% q/q vs 0.4% expected. The annual dynamics, as expected, amounted to 1.1%. Despite this, with the inflation target of the NSS, 1-3%, inflation is now close to the bottom band of the channel, which limits the pressure on monetary tightening.

AUD / USD initially lost 25 pips after worse than expected data from the labor market, but quickly rebounded and now tests 0.78. In March employment increased only by 4,900 against a forecast of 20,000 In addition, data for February have been revised down by almost 24,000. The unemployment rate remained at 5.5%.

Let's now take a look at the AUD/USD technical picture in the H4 time frame. The market re-tested the golden trend line dynamic support around the level of 0.7743 and bounced higher to make a marginal lower high at the level of .07810. Despite this bullish efforts, there is no continuation of the up move so far and the price might be getting ready to go back to the trading range between the levels of 0.7743 - 0.7810. The key technical support is seen at the level of 0.7729 and this is the last support before the swing support at 0.7642.

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