Global macro overview for 18/04/2018

The March inflation reading from the United Kingdom falls below forecasts. The CPI fell to 2.5% from 2.7% a month ago and it's been the lowest level for a year. Core inflation also dropped to 2.3%. from 2.4%, while the market consensus assumed 2.7% and 2.5%. Clothing prices were lower than usual at this time of the year. One can also see the impact of one-off factors in the scope of changes in taxes on alcohol and tobacco products. The figures are a disappointment and a blow to the optimism that the pound has enjoyed in the recent days, because it weakens expectations for the Bank of England interest rate hike in May (although it is not yet canceled).

Let's now take a look at the GBP/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market fell sharply below the golden trend line support after the level of 1.4279 was violated. The price broke through the support at the levels 1.4247 and 1.4223 and so far stopped at the 50% Fibo retracement at the level of 1.4170.The momentum clearly points to the downside and the stochastic oscillator is coming down from the overbought conditions as well, which might indicate more drops towards the level of 1.4143 and 1.4120.

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