Global macro overview for 12/04/2018

The minutes of the last Fed meeting contains a lot of new information. It is a bit unexpected because the document contains a description of the discussion at the policy meeting crowned with a press conference and new macro projections. As a result, the dollar is gaining quite notably due to the fact that some decision makers believe that cooling of the economy may be needed and this should be reflected in the communication with the market. The optimism regarding the pace of growth in the rest of the year and expectations for the inflation rate rise were also repeated. The scale of the positive impact of tax cuts on the real sphere remains unknown. Hazard was defined as the protectionist impulses of the White House and the potential escalation of trade wars, however, it was emphasized that the current barriers (read duty on steel and aluminum) are marginal to the whole economic processes.

Let's now take a look at the US Dollar Index technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market conditions are oversold, so the price is now trying to bounce higher towards the nearest technical resistance at the level of 89.82. Only a sustained breakout above this level would open the road towards the next important technical resistance at the level of 90.18 and 90.59. On the other hand, if the supply side will win this battle, the next technical support is seen at the level of 88.94, just at the edge of the main channel.

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