Global macro overview for 05/04/2018

Solid data from the US (ADP and ISM yesterday) strengthened the US Dolar and allowed the market participants to wait optimistically for tomorrow's NFP report, but if investors do not get confirmation all options remain in the game. Yesterday, supporting data for the USD were better than expected ones on employment in the private sector, which according to the ADP report increased in March by 240,000 full-time jobs against the expected increase of 205,000 posts. This publication is an optimistic forecast for Friday's official report on the US labor market, considering that the employment component in the ISM index for the services sector has also increased. This was not the case for the new sub-index, which was significantly lower than in February. In general, in March the US ISM index for services was 58.8 points. And it was lower than expected by the market consensus.

Let's now take a look at the US Dollar Index technical picture at the H4 time frame after the ADP and ISM data have been published and before the NFP data are posted. The jobs data turned out to be better than expected, and allowed for a spike in sentiment and prices as the market broke out of the horizontal consolidation zone between the levels of 89.90 - 90.30 and made a new local high at the level of 90.35. The momentum is still above its fifty level so if tomorrow's NFP data will again beat the expectations, then the price might violate the technical resistance at the level of 90.47 and 90.59 and head towards the key technical resistance at the level of 90.98. The immediate technical support is seen at the level of 89.90 and 89.63.

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