Fundamental Analysis of EUR/USD for April 9, 2018

EUR/USD has been quite impulsive with the bullish gains on Friday after being dominated by the bears leading the price to reside below 1.2260 area. The downbeat NFP and Unemployment Rate helped EUR to gain certain momentum over USD that is currently expected to continue further in the coming days. Currently, the ECB is thinking about tapering its massive monetary stimulus in the coming months. Besides, upcoming economic reports will play a big role in the process. Today, German Trade Balance report was published with a decrease to 19.2B from the previous figure of 21.5B which was expected to increase to 23.1B. The worse US economic report injected some volatility in the market but EUR was quite successful to sustain its gains. This indicates further bullish pressure in the market. This week, ECB President Draghi is going to speak ahead of the ECB Monetary Meeting Accounts that is likely to inject more volatility in the market as the policymaker is expected to reveal some information about further pland of the ECB. On the USD side, after being hit by the worse economic reports recently, the US currency is now expected to lose some grounds against EUR in the coming days. Ahead of the Consumer Price Index report later this week which is expected to decrease to 0.0% from the previous value of 0.2%. The economic calendar lacks economic reports today, so USD is expected to be quite weak in nature. Tomorrow, US PPI report is going to be published which is expected to decrease to 0.1% from the previous value of 0.2%, Core PPI is expected to be unchanged at 0.2%, and Final Wholesale Inventories report is expected to show a decrease to 0.8% from the previous value of 1.1%. As for the current scenario, EUR is expected to have an upper hand over USD as USD is affected by sour expectation for the nearest statistics that is expected to lead to further bullish pressure in the pair for the coming days of the week.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing above 1.2260 price area with a recent retest off the level which is currently expected to push the price higher towards 1.2350 and later towards 1.2450-1.25 price area in the coming days. The volatility still exists in the market but certain bullish pressure with an engulfing on Friday was quite remarkable which is sufficient evidence for the bulls to proceed further with gains higher. As the price remains above 1.2260 with a daily close, further bullish pressure is expected.

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