Global macro overview for 30/03/2018

An afternoon pack of Thursday's US data did not bring many surprises, but the weekly unemployment fell to 215,000 applications, which is close to the new record low. Data on income and expenses in February were in line with estimates (0.4% m / m and 0.2% m / m), PCE Core increased 0.2% m / m and 1.8%y / y as expected, but the Chicago PMI activity index disappointed, dropping to 57.4 points. (the lowest level since the year), and data on the consumer mood of the University of Michigan fell slightly below the 102 points indicated by analysts. (in March the result indicated 101.4 points).

In the Eurozone, estimated data on CPI inflation in Germany for March were slightly below the anticipated level of 0.5% m/m and 1.7 percent y/y. The actual reading was 0.4% m/m and 1.6 % y/y. In turn, today's estimates from France for March fell slightly above forecasts (CPI reading amounted to 1.5% y/y and HICP 1.7% y/y).

However, the last trading day in March is marked by a slight weakening of the US Dollar - the slowdown observed from Tuesday was visible yesterday afternoon. The cause for this drop was slightly weaker macro readings from the USA. Today the calendar is empty, the nearest important publication from the US is Monday's ISM estimates for the industry. In turn, in the global calendar tomorrow, the market participants will know the estimates of the Chinese PMI indexes for March.

Let's now take a look at the US Dollar Index technical picture at the H4 time frame. The bulls failed to break out above the key technical resistance at the level of 90.59 and after making a lower low at the level of 90.18 the price is not dropping slowly towards the nearest technical support at the level of 89.63. The overbought market conditions support the short-term negative bias for this market.

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