Global macro overview for 30/03/2018

In a wider term, at the end of the quarter, market sentiments remain very volatile and changeable. Strong growth in the stock market was sufficient without the lack of negative information regarding the escalation of restrictions in global trade. However, it is difficult to consider it in the category of reason sufficient for a more lasting rebound and hence the next sharp turns of sentiment. The analysts expect that nervousness will continue to generate volatility, strongly undermine particularly extremely speculative positions. This will largely affect the world of emerging markets, which after a mild overtone of the Fed's March meeting caught its breath, but should not permanently attract capital in the current market environment. In this context, the market participants should expect a resumption of depreciation pressure on the emerging markets currencies (PLN, CZK, HUF), but above all a deep depreciation of the overvalued South African Rand (ZAR).

Let's now take a look at the USD/ZAR technical picture at the daily time frame. Recently this market felt out of the descending channel and now is trading in a horizontal zone between the levels of 11.50 - 12.20. The momentum is hovering around its fifty level as the bulls are trying to test the nearest technical resistance at the level of 12.0000. Only a clear and sustained breakout above the level of 12.20 would change the curent bias from bearish to bullish with a projected target at the level of 13.15.

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