Global macro overview for 08/03/2018

Yesterday's report on the state of the American economy, the so-called The Beige Book of the Fed confirmed the good condition of the economic situation in the USA. A further tightening of the situation on the labor market is visible and the demand for more qualified employees increases. Yesterday's ADP report confirmed the good condition of this sector. According to the data of this private company, in February in the private sector, 235,000 were created. new positions against the expected increase by 195,000 What's more, the data for January have been revised up by 10,000 A rise in prices was observed in all districts, which points to inflationary pressure. The above data support expectations for a solid report from the US Department of Labor and further normalization of monetary policy. In yesterday's speech, a member of FOMC member - Raphael Bostic - revised up his views on the number of interest rate hikes this year to three out of two forecasted in December 2017.

Let's now take a look at the US Dollar Index technical picture at the H4 time frame to see how this data influenced the market. The slide from the level of 90.98 was stopped at the level of 89.37, but since then the price has a trouble to get back to the main channel again despite the oversold market conditions. There is still a chance for a test of the technical resistance at the level of 90.23, but the price might get capped there and reverse back towards the support. Pleas notice that any violation of the support at the level of 89.37 will open the road towards the February lows at 88.26.


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