Global macro overview for 23/02/2018

The undecided behavior of the USD this week raises uncertainty among market participants. The USD has had a weak Thursday, a recovery during the night session in Asia and the return of troubles at the opening of Europe. In general, however, we do not move much in any direction. There is a lack of conviction what to do next. Events that could change something have failed to do so. The minutes of the FOMC meeting were received as slightly dovish or slightly hawkish. Notes from the ECB meeting were also not enough for more than an hour of emotion because they did not bring anything to debate about the future of monetary policy. Stopping the depreciation of USD from the previous week violated the confidence of the sellers, and the trade interrupted by holidays added to indecision. Under its own weight, the market slightly reduces positions and makes profits, especially as the end of the month is approaching. At the same time, braver investors are looking for luck in attempts to awake some uptrends, which will hardly succeed.

USD is waiting for an impulse to confirm or invalidate the current stagnation period. This move might be triggered during the hearing of Fed President J. Powell in Congress on February 28 or a report from the labor market on March 9. It gives global investors a lot of time to think about it, and this is bad news from the side of maintaining a non-sustaining position.

Let's now take a look at the US Dollar Index technical picture on the H4 time frame. The market remains locked in a consolidation zone between the levels of 90.25 - 89.63, which also means it is still under the channel lower trend line. Moreover, the overbought trading conditions are indicating a possible pullback towards the level of 89.63 or even 89.37.


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