Global macro overview for 08/02/2018

Recent macroeconomic data show that the UK economy follows global trends and no signs of uncertainty around Brexit clearly weighing on the mood of consumers and business. The final estimate of GDP for the second quarter was increased to 0.5% q/q, and the first readings for the fourth quarter at 0.4% they slept by 0.1% above forecasts. The last available data fro Industrial production in November was solid, and the decline in December retail sales is mainly the effect of the recovery of impressive figures from November. The labor market shows a slight acceleration in wage growth while maintaining the unemployment rate at the lowest level until the 1970s (4.3%). However, the most recent data on business activity (PMI) indicate a slowdown in the rate of expansion to levels that historically met with the Bank Bank's easing position. In addition, inflation is slowly ceasing to be a problem for the central bank (in December CPI fell to 3.0% y / y from 3.1%), as the effects of Pound depreciation after the Brexit referendum are beginning to expire.

The decision to keep the interest rate unchanged should not cause any emotions unless it is taken unanimously (9-0). A hawkish surprise would be if some members would like to present arguments for an earlier increase in interest rates, but economists consider such a scenario rather unlikely. The GDP growth rate, although it surprised positively and should translate into an increase in growth forecasts in 2018, is still low and sensitive to the effects of ongoing Brexit negotiations. The bounce of the Pound in recent weeks supports a gradual lowering of inflation and reduces pressure on monetary policy tightening.

The Bank of England interest rate decision will be published on Thursday, February 8 at 02:00 pm GMT. The market participants expect the interest rate to stay on the spot at 0.50%. Together with the decision, the Inflation Report will be published and economic forecasts.

Let's now take a look at the GBP/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market has broken below the lower channel trend line, tested the main channel support and bounced back to the range zone. Unfortunately, the bounce was rather weak and now the price is back to test the support at the level of 1.3818. The weak momentum (below its fifty level) confirms the bearish scenario.


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