Global macro overview for 23/01/2018

The biggest volatility is being observed at AUD, which loses 0.5% The reason behind this behavior is the fall in prices of iron ore, which remains in Chinese ports without any chance to find a solution quickly. Raw material stocks increased 14 weeks in a row, as the supply of raw material does not slow down, while consumption is limping after the Chinese authorities imposed restrictions on steel production. Another headwind is the specter of US steel tariffs – President Trump now has the Commerce Department's Section 232 report and has 90 days to decide on recommended policy actions (the aluminum report will be released on Monday). AUD stays in close relation with iron ore prices and negative signals from the commodity market may hit the already-bought Aussie, which has been evidently struggling in recent days with maintaining over USD 0.80.

Let's now take a look at the AUD/USD technical picture in the H4 timeframe. As the iron ore price might be set to reverse the uptrend, so is the AUD/USD pair as it is currently trading at the channel support at the level of 0.7961. If AUD/USD fells out of the channel, then the next technical support is seen at the level of 0.7934, but if we take a look at the momentum indicator, there is a reason to think the next key technical support is seen at the level of 0.7907.

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