Global macro overview for 10/01/2018

The price of Crude Oil on the US stock market has been steadily climbing up for a month. In mid-December, the barrel, about 159 liters of raw oil, cost $ 56. On Wednesday morning it reached 63.5 dollars, which means an increase of about 13.0%. For the last time, Crude Oil was so expensive in December 2014. The prolongation of the OPEC agreement on limiting oil production and declining inventories are the main elements behind price increases. Especially in the global perspective, the fundamental situation on the Crude Oil market is still not the best. In the first half of this year, the surplus of Crude Oil will remain in the world.

Today the market participants will get familiar with the latest Crude Oil Inventories data. The economists anticipated a draw of -3900k barrels after the last week drop of -7419k. The news is scheduled for release at 03:30 pm GMT. If the data will be released in line with expectations, it will be the 8th consecutive week of Crude Oil draw in inventories.

Let's now take a look at the USD/CAD technical picture at the H4 time frame. This forex pair is highly correlated with the Crude Oil prices (inverted correlation). The price is trying to bounce from the low at the level of 1.2365 and is currently testing the technical resistance at the level of 1.2484. Any violation of this level might lead to further rally towards the level of 1.2556. Strong upward momentum supports the view.

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