Fundamental Analysis of EURCAD for January 5, 2018

EUR/CAD has been struggling at the edge of the rising Channel support and the 1.50 support area for a few days now, which is expected to break below in the coming days. CAD has been the dominant currency in the pair since November 2017 but failed to sustain the impulsive bearish gains resulting in further correction and volatility above the support area. Today the German Retail Sales report was published with a significant increase of 2.3% from the previous negative value of -1.2%, which was expected to be at 1.0%; the French Prelim CPI report was published as expected at 0.3% increasing from the previous value of 0.1%; CPI Flash Estimate decreased to 1.4% as expected from the previous value of 1.5%; Core CPI Flash Estimate report was published with an unchanged value of 0.9%, which was expected to increase to 1.0%; the PPI report showed an increase to 0.6% from the previous value of 0.4%, which was expected to decrease to 0.3%; and the Italian Prelim CPI report also showed a significant increase to 0.4% from the previous negative value of -0.2%, which was expected to be at 0.2%. Though the economic reports were published with mixed results, CAD is expected to dominate the pair in the coming days. Today CAD Employment Change report is going to be published which is expected to have a drastic change to 1.8k from the previous figure of 79.5k; Trade Balance is expected to show a smaller deficit of -1.2B from the previous figure of -1.5B; and Unemployment Rate is expected to increase to 6.0% from the previous value of 5.9%. As of the current scenario, the CAD economic reports which are expected to be quite significant are forecasted to be quite negative, but if the CAD economic reports show positive results or better than expected, CAD is likely to gain stronger momentum over EUR and dominate further in the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing at the edge of breaking below the Channel Support and Horizontal support level of 1.50. The price is also being held by the dynamic level of 20 EMA as a resistance for a few days now and a break below 1.50 is expected to lead to further bearish pressure in this pair with target towards the 1.4730 support area. As the price remains below the 1.52 price area, the bearish bias is expected to continue further.

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