Global macro overview for 20/12/2017

Swedish Riksbank kept its interest rate unchanged (-0.5%) in line with expectations. The deadline for the first hike remained unchanged - we find out from the statement that this may happen more or less in the middle of next year, but Riksbank's final decision on when to start to increase the policy rate depends in large part on how the ECB times its policy normalization. it is highly unlikely that Riksbank will start to hike to interest rates before ECB. Nevertheless, the biggest news in the Riksbank's statement today is the decision not to add to its QE programme anymore, although the decision to re-calibrate reinvestments means that asset purchases will continue in 2018 and the first half of 2019. In the result, the Riksbank's balance sheet will continue to expand in 2018 and early 2019 provided a very gradual path towards exiting the programme.

Let's now take a look at the USD/SEK technical picture at the H4 time frame. In the first USD/SEK reaction, it dived 0.8%. to 8.31, however, some of the losses have already been erased. Currently, the rate fluctuates around the level of 8.35, but it is still below the golden trend line. The nearest technical resistance is seen at the level of 8.40 and the nearest technical support is seen at the level of 8.26.


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