Global macro overview for 12/12/2017

The CPI data has beat the market participants expectations of 0.2% as the number released was at the level of 0.3% (0.1% prior). On yearly basis, the CPI jumped from 3.0% to 3.1%, but still, today's November CPI inflation data has not become a pretext to a recovery rally in British Pound (although it can not be ruled out that the reaction will be delayed). The market participants will receive the labor market data (this is tomorrow), and the dynamics of retail sales and the Bank of England meeting (interest rate decision on Thursday). Moreover, Brexit concerns still weigh on British Pound - yesterday speculations appeared that the ministers in the government of Prime Minister May, Boris Johnson and Michael Gove (the faction opting for the so-called hard Brexit) had a different vision for access negotiations to the single market and expected that May will take into account their demands in exchange for the support they have given her in recent days when negotiating an agreement with the EU that can open the door to the second, key phase of the talks. It is difficult to assess how much of this truth - the media are still hacking the thread of "undisciplined" ministers - but it is a signal that the second and the most important from the point of view of the economic interests of Great Britain will not be so easy.

It will be important for global investors to see how quickly it will be possible to agree on the so-called EU transition period after Brexit (possibly to last about 2 years) and under what exact conditions. Only then will the market participants might witness so-called relief rally in British Pound, which will reduce concerns related to the so-called hard or chaotic Brexit.

Let's now take a look at the GBP/JPY technical picture at the H4 timeframe. The price has dropped from the local high at the level of 153.38 and stopped at 38% Fibo at the level of 150.92. Currently, the price is testing the dashed black trend line around the level of 151.58. The key resistance is seen at the level of 151.91.

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