Global macro overview for 05/12/2017

The Reserve Bank of Australia has left the main interest rates at the level of 1.5%, just as expected. This marks the fifteenth meeting in a row the RBA has held rates steady, with the last rate movement taking place in August 2016 with a 25 basis point rate cut. In the Monetary Policy Statement, RBA Governor Phillip Lowe remained relatively optimistic in his discussion on the strength of the labour market but pointed to a possible skills shortage. He said that: "There are reports that some employers are finding it more difficult to hire workers with the necessary skills. However, wage growth remains low. This is likely to continue for a while yet, although the stronger conditions in the labour market should see some lift in wage growth over time."

Even if the RBA still has a plan to tighten the monetary policy even further, the economic conditions do not favour this kind of decision until at least middle of 2018. In order to hike the interest rates, the inflation must accelerate above 2.0% and most importantly, wages growth must accelerate as well above 2.0% ( it has been tried for last three years).

AUD has found support in better data on retail sales (0.5% vs. 0.3% expected, 0.1% prior) and RBA, which has changed little over the past month despite some disappointments in the data. The RBA has high hopes in reading GDP for the third quarter, so if the data disappoints, the Aussie will have much to lose.

Let's now take a look at the AUD/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market bounced from the technical support at the level of 0.7552, but did not manage to break out above the technical resistance at the level of 0.7645 yet. If it does, then the next technical resistance is seen at the level of 0.7742.

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