Fundamental Analysis of EUR/USD for December 26, 2017

EUR/USD has been quite bullish recently that pushed the price higher to the resistance area between 1.1850 and 1.1930. Amid the thin market during the holidays this week, the pair is likely to continue correction moves without any trend defining momentum. Nevertheless, USD is expected to have stronger momentum over EUR as some market-moving economic reports are going to be published this week. Today, USD S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI report is due which is expected to have a slight increase to 6.3% from the previous value of 6.2% and Richmond Manufacturing Index is expected to decrease to 22 from the previous figure of 30. Moreover, in the coming days of the week, US CB Consumer Confidence report and Unemployment Claims report are going to be published which are also forecasted to bring mixed readings. On the EUR side, today we do not have any economic reports or events to have an impact of EUR's gains. However, on Thursday this week the ECB Economic Bulletin is going to be released. Besides, on Friday German Prelim CPI, Spanish Flash CPI, and M3 Money Supply reports are going to be published where most of the forecasts are negative for the currency. As for the current scenario, the US is expected to present some positive economic reports which could provide the US currency with support. So USD could gain momentum over EUR in the coming days. Though the market is expected to be quite corrective in the coming days, any impulsive bearish pressure will lead to the overall bearish pressure in the short term.

Now let us look at the technical chart. The price is currently holding inside the resistance area between 1.1850 and 1.1930. Besides,the dynamic level of 20 EMA is acting as support. The market is currently expected to be quite corrective and less liquid amid the holidays. However, a break above 1.1930 with a daily close will lead to further bullish pressure with a target towards 1.2050. Though the price has the bullish pre-breakout structure, it also suggests the probability of bearish pressure as well. In this case, if the price breaks below 1.1850 with a daily close, then we will be looking forward for a bearish move in the coming days with a target towards 1.1660 support area in the coming days.

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