Global macro overview for 17/11/2017

Interesting comments from Mario Draghi has hit the newswires.

Mario Draghi, the president of the ECB, points out in his speech at the Frankfurt European Banking Congress "Europe into a New Era – How to Seize the Opportunities" that a change in the pace of buying-in is signaling an inevitable end to European slack. In his opinion, the economies of the euro area countries are entering a robust recovery phase, which implies greater resistance to new asymmetric shocks. According to Draghi, the objective of stability in the medium term is a priority, which should be linked to maintaining a relatively loose monetary policy. The head of the ECB points out that a clear rebound in inflation expectations now allows the members of the Governing Council to look with optimism to extinguish the effects of price pressures in Eurozone.

The economic recovery in the Eurozone is continuing as the last series of data showed, but inflation developments remain subdued. The European economy is not yet at a point where the recovery of inflation can be self-sustained without ECB accommodative policy. A key motor of the recovery remains the very favorable financing conditions facing firms and households, which are in turn heavily contingent on ECB policy measures. An ample degree of monetary stimulus remains necessary for underlying inflation pressures to build up and support headline inflation over the medium term.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. Draghi's comments slightly raise the volatility of Euro currency pairs and crosses. At present EUR/USD returns to the level of 1.1800 and still trades above the golden trend line support. The key level to the upside is still the technical resistance zone between the levels of 1.1856 - 1.1880.


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