Global macro overview for 13/11/2017

The Federal Budget Balance data measures the difference in value between the federal government's income and spending during the previous month. The October budget statement from the Treasury will mark the beginning of the fiscal year 2018. During the fiscal year 2017, the budget deficit increased to $666 bn, from $586 bn during the previous fiscal year. In June 2017, the CBO estimated a somewhat smaller deficit in the fiscal year 2018 ($563bn) owing to a modest increase in individual income tax payments. Historically, outlays outpace receipts in October. This is why a budget deficit during the first month of the fiscal year 2018 would not be unexpected. Consensus expects a deficit of $50bn for October.

Let's now take a look at the US Dollar Index technical picture at the H4 time frame. The sequence of the higher highs and higher lows continues since the FED interest rate decision in September. The price is respecting the golden trend line dynamic support and so fat it reached the level of 95.15. The upward outlook is being supported by the oversold trading conditions which make the likelihood of a short-term advance more probable. The first target is at the level of 95.15 and the next one is at the level of 95.44.


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