Global macro overview for 09/11/2017

There are just three rounds of negotiations before December's EU summit, where EU leaders will have to decide (again) if sufficient progress has been made. Except for the recent "dovish hike" by Bank of England and self-evident Brexit uncertainty. the negotiations might have an impact on the British Pound exchange rate as well as the recent internal development on the UK political scene. Scandals are threatening PM May's thin majority and are likely to leave the Tory party (and May's leadership) weakened. Moreover, the UK Government is under the pressure to publish 58 "secret" studies examining the economic impact of Brexit.Those studies are the assessments into how the EU withdrawal will impact on sectors ranging from tourism to pharmaceuticals, which make up nearly 88% of the UK economy. Failure to publish the raft of studies has prompted a major political row with more than 170 cross-party MPs urging their release, while campaigners also threatened the Government with legal action if the assessments were not made public.

Finally, October's CPI will be released next Tuesday, and that may also drive some volatility in the GBP - considering the highly contingent nature of the BoE's current tightening cycle.

Let's now take a look at the GBP/JPY technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market failed to rally above the level of 151.59, reversed and currently is trading close to the technical support at the level of 148.61. A breakout below this level will likely lead to the test of 38% Fibo at the level of 147.66 again and if the sell-off accelerate, then the lows of 146.89 might be tested as well. Weak momentum development supports this bias.


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