Global macro overview for 06/11/2017

Market participants expect the RBA to hold the interest rate unchanged at the level of 1.50%, but in previous years November has been a very popular month for changing rates. Rates have not been adjusted in November since 2011. However, in the six years from 2006 to 2011, there was a rate move at every November RBA Board meeting. In the recent times, November has also been a popular month for market expectations of rate moves. Following the rate cut in August last year, markets were confident that there would be a follow-up cut in November.

The RBA Board will have the opportunity to review the Bank's own assessment of the revised weights on the inflation outlook and developments in residential property markets. Recent data shows that six-month annualized inflation in the Sydney market has fallen from 2.2% in January this year to –0.7% in October. Of particular interest for the Sydney, the market is going to be the behavior of investors going forward.

The Reserve Bank has indicated that interest rates will be targeted at inflation and growth, while monetary policy will address financial stability. Current trends indicate that financial stability concerns will be easing for the RBA. Interest rate increases may exacerbate weakness in real estate markets which might have a spillover impact on confidence and spending will also be unattractive. In conclusion, the overall outlook for RBA meeting is no change in interest rate yet.

Let's now take a look at the AUD/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market failed to rally above the technical resistance at the level of 0.7732 and currently trades closer to the technical support at the level of 0.7625. In order to rally higher, the level of 0.7732 is the key for bulls, otherwise, the downtrend will continue.

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